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Prediction markets for the Olympiad
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
84.01%chance
181305889
OptionVotes
110682
29252
When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
87146143
OptionProbability
60
26
4
4
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
59
14
11
10
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
79
42
36
6
6
5
5
5
5
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
42
29
14
8
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
What is the next major competitive sport where AI beat top human player
Feb 24, 3:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
184613
OptionProbability
90
7
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?
Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
43%chance
333838
OptionVotes
1190
253
Will Century High School (MN) qualify for Science Olympiad Nationals in 2027?
Mar 17, 3:08 AMApr 1, 10:59 PM
8.85%chance
162946
OptionVotes
321
31
Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?
Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
1.99%chance
122919
OptionVotes
890
11
OptionProbability
60
21
19
Will the IMO (International Mathematical Olympiad) be held in this country?
Jul 23, 12:49 AMJul 23, 12:41 AM
8611
OptionProbability
97
92
92
91
88
Will "That Mad Olympiad" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Oct 17, 4:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.7%chance
2270
OptionVotes
1102
984