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Prediction markets for Think Longer
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
38.82%chance
556181632
OptionVotes
2605
2168
OptionVotes
11829
8825
Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?
Aug 29, 8:41 PMOct 7, 8:59 PM
23.51%chance
14017188
OptionVotes
2824
1487
Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?
Dec 8, 9:08 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
18.1%chance
6015397
OptionVotes
1983
1140
[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
20.52%chance
3412373
OptionVotes
19679
5082
In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?
Mar 17, 7:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
56%chance
6712154
OptionVotes
1340
512
Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?
Jun 25, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
74%chance
437735
OptionVotes
1687
593
Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?
May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
78.52%chance
534606
OptionVotes
1912
523
2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.
Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
71.93%chance
163414
OptionVotes
1009
979
OptionVotes
1595
1109
Will anti-aging treatments developed, approved and available for public usage by 2040?
Jan 17, 9:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
40.26%chance
422048
OptionVotes
1444
369
2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
26.97%chance
251329
OptionVotes
1017
852
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