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Prediction markets for Time
OptionProbability
88
7
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
4634
1131
OptionProbability
27
19
11
10
9
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1320
1096
Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?
Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5.11%chance
3437585
OptionVotes
43079
2321
In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)
Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM
63.63%chance
7921645
OptionVotes
2729
2049
Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Nov 21, 4:34 PMNov 28, 10:59 PM
6.94%chance
910734
OptionVotes
20706
7842
Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?
Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM
51.05%chance
4410157
OptionVotes
10938
8979
Will a polynomial time factoring algorithm be found by 2035?
Sep 6, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
8.96%chance
512583
OptionVotes
2216
1303
Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?
Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM
17.74%chance
52226
OptionVotes
8092
5234
OptionVotes
900
11
OptionProbability
25
25
25
25