Time News

9 months ago

When will Trump serve time?

Jun 29, 9:56 PMDec 1, 11:03 PM

25841923818

OptionProbability

Never

2029

2030s

2023 (NO)

2024 (NO)

2025 (NO)

2026

2027

2028

2040s or later

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

Jul 26, 4:22 AMJun 26, 6:59 AM

13.79%chance

421231032

OptionVotes

YES

5245

1021

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Nov 30, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

181110755

OptionProbability

Other

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Zohran Mamdani

Pete Hegseth

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

Xi Jinping

Marco Rubio

Sam Altman

Vladimir Putin

Benjamin Netanyahu

Gavin Newsom

Dario Amodei

Claudia Sheinbaum

Elon Musk

AOC

Jerome Powell

Sydney Sweeney

Demis Hassabis

Larry Ellison

Jensen Huang

Gen Z

Jeffrey Epstein

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Nicholas Maduro

Mark Zuckerberg

Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

Lisa Su

Fei-Fei Li

Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

Millenials

Gen X

Baby Boomers

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Scott Bessent

Sundar Pichai

Narendra Modi

Ursula von der Leyen

Jasmine Crockett

Graham Platner

Kevin Hassett

Gen Alpha

Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

Ahmed al-Sharaa

James Talarico

Jon Ossoff

Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]

Bad Bunny

Kevin Warsh

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

YES

2729

2049

[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.15%chance

7720977

OptionVotes

YES

9071

3542

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4310153

OptionVotes

YES

10938

8979

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Nov 21, 4:34 PMNov 28, 10:59 PM

7.18%chance

710104

OptionVotes

YES

20076

7889

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.51%chance

247237

OptionVotes

YES

15091

6626

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.81%chance

335935

OptionVotes

YES

4447

225

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

181963

OptionVotes

YES

700

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

19.42%chance

31576

OptionVotes

YES

7442

5382

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

Jan 28, 1:19 AMJan 1, 1:19 AM

OptionProbability

0-9 Days

10-49 Days

50-99 Days

100+ Days

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When will Trump serve time?

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

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