Tokenized News

Sergey Nazarov on Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Transfers, CCIP, and Cross-Border Settlements with ANZ and Fidelity on Visa’s Tokenized Podcast

6 months ago

Will Polymarket create a Token in the following year?

Jun 12, 3:03 AMJan 3, 4:59 AM

3625069

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028 or later or never

2024

2025

Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?

Jun 5, 2:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.95%chance

89570

OptionVotes

YES

9720

103

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

45073

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.5%chance

71195

OptionVotes

YES

1264

791

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?

Dec 13, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.77%chance

61105

OptionVotes

YES

1953

512

The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026

Jan 2, 7:37 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

80.27%chance

41075

OptionVotes

YES

2017

496

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

6.17%chance

12628

OptionVotes

YES

1385

915

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

1141

876

By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?

Feb 2, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6469

OptionProbability

< 0.05x

0.05x - 0.2x

0.2x - 0.5x

0.5x - 0.9x

0.9x - 1.1x

> 1.1x

Will the OpenSea token be >1 billion a week after launch?

Jan 22, 7:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.98%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

1250

800

Will "Recent LLMs can use filler tokens or problem ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 7:13 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.83%chance

2111

OptionVotes

YES

1091

986

Will "Shorter Tokens Are More Likely" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 12:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Sergey Nazarov on Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Transfers, CCIP, and Cross-Border Settlements with ANZ and Fidelity on Visa’s Tokenized Podcast
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6 months ago

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Will Polymarket create a Token in the following year?

Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?

The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?

Will the OpenSea token be >1 billion a week after launch?

Will "Recent LLMs can use filler tokens or problem ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Shorter Tokens Are More Likely" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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Telegram