Tokenized News

Sergey Nazarov on Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Transfers, CCIP, and Cross-Border Settlements with ANZ and Fidelity on Visa’s Tokenized Podcast

1 year ago

Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?

May 13, 3:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.61%chance

4011304

OptionVotes

YES

13991

2467

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

56573

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

N/A

Under $2B

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.26%chance

101490

OptionVotes

YES

1056

947

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?

Dec 13, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.23%chance

91167

OptionVotes

YES

1871

535

The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026

Jan 2, 7:37 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

81.04%chance

51125

OptionVotes

YES

2067

484

Before 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access?

Jun 5, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.54%chance

41055

OptionVotes

YES

1802

555

What % of Anthropic's IPO share price will the PreStocks Anthropic token trade at?

May 11, 11:46 PMDec 31, 12:39 AM

69.19%chance

6711

OptionVotes

YES

1499

667

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

1141

876

Will the OpenSea token be >1 billion a week after launch?

Jan 22, 7:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.08%chance

3595

OptionVotes

YES

1280

782

Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?

Jun 1, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.42%chance

7289

OptionVotes

YES

1165

858

Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.51%chance

3170

OptionVotes

YES

1072

933

Will "Shorter Tokens Are More Likely" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 12:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Fintech
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Blockchains
Sergey Nazarov on Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Transfers, CCIP, and Cross-Border Settlements with ANZ and Fidelity on Visa’s Tokenized Podcast
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1 year ago

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Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?

The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026

Before 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access?

What % of Anthropic's IPO share price will the PreStocks Anthropic token trade at?

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Will the OpenSea token be >1 billion a week after launch?

Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?

Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?

Will "Shorter Tokens Are More Likely" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

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