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Prediction markets for Tokenized
Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?
Jun 5, 2:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
98.95%chance
89570
OptionVotes
9720
103
What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?
Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM
45573
OptionProbability
53
13
9
9
8
8
[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?
Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
47%chance
101485
OptionVotes
1062
942
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?
Dec 13, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.51%chance
81152
OptionVotes
1856
539
The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026
Jan 2, 7:37 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM
81.04%chance
51125
OptionVotes
2067
484
AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉
Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM
6.17%chance
12628
OptionVotes
1385
915
Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?
Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43.43%chance
10623
OptionVotes
1141
876
Will the OpenSea token be >1 billion a week after launch?
Jan 22, 7:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
53.36%chance
2385
OptionVotes
1070
935
Will "Soulbound Tokens" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030?
Dec 11, 4:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.93%chance
6152
OptionVotes
158
110
Will "Recent LLMs can use filler tokens or problem ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 23, 7:13 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.83%chance
2111
OptionVotes
1091
986
OptionVotes
108
92
Will "Shorter Tokens Are More Likely" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 23, 12:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
122
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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