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Top stories

Bhatia Ace Propels Him Into FedExCup Top 30 at BMW Championship

Authors

6

21 hours ago

Prediction markets for Top 30

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs

May 16, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.52%chance

454256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1764

571

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?

Aug 26, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.34%chance

252192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

790

Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026?

Nov 24, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.84%chance

331440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2655

1053

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will Nothing Unanticipated Happen by November?

Jul 20, 4:16 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

47.96%chance

8493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3619

3387

Will any model of the LMSYS chatbot arena top 30 at the end of 2025 use Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN)?

May 6, 10:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7.65%chance

10379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

924

Medical researchers publish papers crediting OpenAI tools with major progress in any of 30 top diseases by mid 2027

Feb 25, 8:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

23%chance

7334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

120

Will "About 30% of Humanity’s Last Exam chemistry/b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.14%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

964

Will "Notifications Received in 30 Minutes of Class" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 27, 4:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

35.36%chance

5237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

353

Will Magnus Carlsen be the world’s top-ranked chess player on November 30?

Jan 17, 2:33 AMDec 2, 4:59 AM

85.3%chance

6186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

241

42

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

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Aug 16, 2025
Aug 16, 2025
Golf
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Bhatia Ace Propels Him Into FedExCup Top 30 at BMW Championship
Authors
6
21 hours ago

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