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Prediction markets for Top Stories
When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?
Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
172420
OptionProbability
40
21
17
16
10
Major news report of ideological filtering of would-be resident in Praxis city project (before 2027)
Sep 15, 7:21 AMJan 1, 7:28 AM
72.55%chance
7789
OptionVotes
118
96
Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 1, 10:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.91%chance
4621
OptionVotes
1401
947
Major news report linking Praxis city project and (neo) Feudalism (before 2027)
Sep 14, 8:07 PMJan 1, 7:28 AM
81.29%chance
494
OptionVotes
167
57
Will "My supervillain origin story" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 30, 9:15 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
7.16%chance
190
OptionVotes
190
90
OptionProbability
23
14
14
14
14
12
8
🇬🇧 Will the BBC’s top story be about UK heat-related deaths by end of 2030
Aug 4, 12:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.64%chance
150
OptionVotes
1048
954
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