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Touch ID News

    Prediction markets for Touch ID

    OptionProbability

    >= 8x optical zoom

    >= 12 GB RAM

    >= 6.85" display

    a Thunderbolt 4 or USB4 port

    >= 3 high-performance cores

    >= 130% mAh battery of next-tier iPhone

    greater optical zoom than next-tier iPhone

    more high-performance cores than next-tier iPhone

    2 TB storage option

    >= 1.5x RAM of next-tier iPhone

    Special LLM capabilities (e.g. extra cache for LLM weights near a Neural Engine)

    >= 1.5x transistors of next-tier iPhone

    No physical buttons https://www.macrumors.com/2025/10/28/20th-anniversary-iphone-solid-state-buttons/

    officially supports a desktop-like experience when used with external displays (~same web app experience as MacOS Safari)

    a Thunderbolt 3 port

    special LLM capabilities beyond next-tier iPhone. Just 2x inference volume wouldn't count.

    split-screen multi-tasking

    more external buttons than next-tier iPhone

    a Quantum Random Number Generator (QRNG) chip

    >= 2 USB-C ports

    Touch ID

    officially supports dual-booting MacOS

    81

    80

    76

    76

    72

    66

    66

    66

    66

    59

    54

    50

    50

    41

    41

    41

    41

    38

    28

    26

    19

    17

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