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Top stories

Google Translate Adds AI Live Conversations and Language Practice, Challenging Duolingo

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Translate

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.32%chance

10519439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1897

748

Will AI translators be as good as humans before 2030?

Nov 10, 8:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

91.47%chance

202079

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2019

837

Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?

Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

72.51%chance

301827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

963

When will human translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 5:12 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

14.28%chance

241489

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1297

1143

Will Animal Communication be Translated by 2030?

Dec 19, 10:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

44.68%chance

201207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

828

By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts

Jan 5, 10:41 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

23.44%chance

221163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

889

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

12.84%chance

211146

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1153

1050

By 2040, will there be audio translation tech that's a full substitute for knowing a foreign language?

Dec 29, 7:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89.84%chance

15981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

946

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.26%chance

18788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

954

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

Will "Prompt injection in Google Translate reveals ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 8, 11:05 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.82%chance

2288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

960

If intelligent aliens visit us, will AI-based technologies outperform analog linguistics in translating their language?

Mar 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.65%chance

13186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

977

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Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Software
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Tech
Google Translate Adds AI Live Conversations and Language Practice, Challenging Duolingo
Authors
12
1 year ago

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