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Prediction markets for Translate
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
70.09%chance
9914436
OptionVotes
1530
877
Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?
Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM
81.56%chance
261632
OptionVotes
1517
827
OptionProbability
1247
1152
Will there be more Interpreters and Translators jobs in the U.S. in 2025 than in 2021?
May 31, 12:49 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
20.36%chance
311222
OptionVotes
1053
949
OptionVotes
1659
875
By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts
Jan 5, 10:41 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
23.44%chance
221163
OptionVotes
1227
889
When will human literary translators become unnecessary?
Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
11.39%chance
18896
OptionProbability
1297
1031
Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?
Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.84%chance
17783
OptionVotes
1095
949
Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?
Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM
74.79%chance
26735
OptionVotes
998
935
OptionVotes
997
943
By 2040, will there be audio translation tech that's a full substitute for knowing a foreign language?
Dec 29, 7:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
90.3%chance
13346
OptionVotes
1275
940
If intelligent aliens visit us, will AI-based technologies outperform analog linguistics in translating their language?
Mar 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
69.65%chance
13186
OptionVotes
1037
977
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