Trust Act News

ICE Makes 1,600 Long Island Arrests, Widens Crackdown in Connecticut

1 year ago

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.48%chance

205553

OptionVotes

YES

10072

2801

Will Stripe acquire Openrouter in 2026?

Jul 25, 4:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.58%chance

513077

OptionVotes

YES

6420

5689

Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?

Jul 5, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

131943

OptionVotes

YES

1319

758

Will AI regulations that include mechanisms for uncovering AI deception be adopted in the U.S. before 2035?

Nov 1, 1:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

82.41%chance

191003

OptionVotes

YES

1001

979

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

4531

OptionVotes

YES

1500

841

Will Ketanji Brown Jackson rule in favor of Virginia's redistricting

May 9, 1:20 AMJan 1, 2:19 AM

79.63%chance

5465

OptionVotes

YES

1435

857

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Aug 5, 6:26 AMDec 31, 6:30 AM

78.41%chance

2410

OptionVotes

YES

1363

876

Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children?

Jul 31, 9:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.58%chance

5198

OptionVotes

YES

1342

1267

In what years will CoT monitoring fail for frontier AI?

Sep 8, 11:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6182

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2030-2035

2035-2040

2040-2050

2027

2026

2025

Will polling show that a majority of American adults believe Oswald "acted alone" before 2030?

Jul 3, 11:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13172

OptionProbability

There will be enough new polling, and it will show that a majority of Americans still believe that Oswald did not act alone.

There will not be enough new polling of this question before 2030.

There will be enough new polling, and it will show that a majority of Americans now believe Oswald acted alone.

When will Waymo or an equivalent be generally available in chicago.

Jun 20, 2:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4106

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2027

2030 or later

when will Elomusk finish his last project in this year 2026

Jun 25, 10:42 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

320

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Oct 2026

Before Dec 2026

Before Aug 2026

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Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
US Domestic Policy
New York
Politics
ICE Makes 1,600 Long Island Arrests, Widens Crackdown in Connecticut
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1 year ago

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Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will Stripe acquire Openrouter in 2026?

Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?

Will AI regulations that include mechanisms for uncovering AI deception be adopted in the U.S. before 2035?

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Will Ketanji Brown Jackson rule in favor of Virginia's redistricting

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children?

In what years will CoT monitoring fail for frontier AI?

Will polling show that a majority of American adults believe Oswald "acted alone" before 2030?

When will Waymo or an equivalent be generally available in chicago.

when will Elomusk finish his last project in this year 2026

Latest stories

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