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Turkish News

    Prediction markets for Turkish

    Members of the Board of Peace?

    Jan 20, 4:29 AMDec 31, 11:01 PM
    3822451

    OptionProbability

    Tony Blair (former UK Prime Minister)

    Viktor Orbán (Hungarian Prime Minister)

    Tô Lâm (Vietnamese Communist Party Secretary General)

    Javier Milei (Argentine President)

    Edi Rama (Albanian Prime Minister)

    Santiago Peña (Paraguayan President)

    Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkish President)

    Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistani Prime Minister)

    Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister)

    Marco Rubio (US Secretary of State)

    Steve Witkoff (US Special Envoy)

    Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law)

    Marc Rowan (Finance billionaire)

    Ajay Banga (President of World Bank)

    Robert Gabriel (US Security Adviser)

    Nickolay Mladenov (Bulgarian diplomat)

    Alexander Lukashenko (Belarusian President)

    Vladimir Putin (Russian President)

    Narendra Modi (Indian Prime Minister)

    Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Brazilian President)

    United Kingdom

    Anthony Albanese (Australian Prime Minister)

    Mark Carney (Canadian Prime Minister)

    Xi Jinping (Chinese Communist Party Secretary General)

    Giorgia Meloni (Italian Prime Minister)

    Ursula von der Leyen (EU Commission President)

    Emmanuel Macron (French President)

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    69

    20

    15

    15

    15

    10

    8

    8

    7

    5

    5

    Next airline to default

    Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM
    1621915

    OptionProbability

    JetBlue

    No default amongst those listed before 2030

    Frontier

    Bermudair

    Avelo

    United

    American

    Southwest

    Alaska

    Air Canada

    Ryanair

    Qantas

    Cathay Pacific

    KLM

    Turkish Airlines

    Qatar Airlines

    Virgin Atlantic

    Iberia

    LATAM

    Aeromexico

    Allegiant Air

    Breeze

    Sun Country

    Lufthansa

    Emirates

    Singapore Airlines

    ANA

    Air New Zealand

    23

    17

    17

    5

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    In the year 2100, these will be the top 5 languages

    Aug 22, 4:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    727623

    OptionProbability

    English

    Hindi

    Mandarin Chinese

    Spanish

    Modern Standard Arabic

    Other

    French

    Bengali

    Portugese

    Swahili

    Indonesian

    Esperanto

    Urdu

    Russian

    German

    Japanese

    Farsi

    Turkish

    Korean

    26

    16

    14

    13

    11

    11

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    What countries will join the UN before 2030

    Apr 2, 5:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    325071

    OptionProbability

    Bougainville

    Palestine

    Kosovo

    Somaliland

    Western Sahara

    Sakha (Yakutia)

    Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

    Transnistria

    Scotland

    Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order

    Catalonia

    Greenland

    ROC (Taiwan)

    Siberia

    Chechnya (Ichkeriya, Nokhchiicho)

    29

    29

    9

    6

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    Will America invade Turkey in the next 20 years

    Mar 1, 12:54 AMMar 1, 12:53 AM
    5.84%chance
    114511

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    4016

    249

    Will Turkey acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

    Feb 10, 5:00 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM
    8.22%chance
    212847

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    461

    105

    Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

    Mar 11, 11:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    4.75%chance
    21909

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    448

    22

    Which revolutions will Mike Duncan cover in future seasons of the Revolutions podcast?

    Jan 18, 11:27 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    7780

    OptionProbability

    Spanish Civil War/Spanish Revolution

    Irish Revolution

    Algerian Revolution

    Cuban Revolution

    Iranian Revolution

    Chinese Communist Revolution

    1989 Revolutions (as a whole, similar to 1848)

    Hungarian Revolution

    Greek Revolution

    Turkish Revolution/Young Turks

    Arab Spring (as a whole, similar to 1848)

    98

    98

    98

    98

    98

    80

    56

    20

    20

    20

    1

    What organization will be the first to land a human on Mars?

    Aug 4, 11:42 PMDec 28, 7:59 AM
    19676

    OptionProbability

    SpaceX

    Chinese government

    US government

    Blue Origin

    Other

    European Space Agency

    Russian government

    Indian government

    Turkish Space Agency

    Japanese government

    37

    30

    25

    5

    2

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will the TAI TF Kaan have entered service in Turkey by the end of 2030?

    Jun 14, 7:59 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
    65.09%chance
    576

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    76

    61

    Will FinFisher executives be sentenced to at least 3 months of prison?

    May 24, 6:08 AMDec 5, 10:59 PM
    69.74%chance
    539

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    163

    109

    When will the Istanbul Canal open to traffic?

    Sep 10, 3:20 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    212

    OptionProbability

    Q4, 2028

    Q1, 2029

    Q3, 2027

    Q4, 2027

    Q1, 2028

    Q2, 2028

    Q3, 2028

    Q2, 2029

    Q3, 2029

    Q4, 2029

    Q1, 2027

    Q2, 2027

    Other

    10

    10

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    6

    6

    6

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