UFS News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

93.53%chance

8737982725

OptionVotes

YES

20034

8726

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

81159002

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

Before January 2026

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Jan 17, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.68%chance

54122547

OptionVotes

YES

966

910

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22%chance

10048142

OptionVotes

YES

1560

1107

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

Sep 22, 5:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

318436

OptionVotes

YES

1072

965

By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Dec 21, 4:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.88%chance

766325

OptionVotes

YES

3054

1067

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

525974

OptionProbability

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Aliens

Simulation Hypothesis

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

Other

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Will Trump pardon crimes related to deceiving the public about UFO's before 2026?

Jan 27, 3:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

10%chance

52572

OptionVotes

YES

2767

100

By 2025, over 50% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Jan 3, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.25%chance

442072

OptionVotes

YES

1007

963

Will there be another UFC event at the Las Vegas Sphere after UFC 306 by 2050?

Sep 5, 9:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.78%chance

8638

OptionVotes

YES

1484

674

Will Alex Pereira defeat Magomed Ankalaev at UFC 320?

Aug 17, 8:33 PMOct 31, 5:24 AM

42.59%chance

2161

OptionVotes

YES

1161

861

Will UFC host another event in the MSG Sphere in last Vegas before 2028?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

56.68%chance

2151

OptionVotes

YES

1144

874

UFS News

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Prediction markets for UFS

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Will Trump pardon crimes related to deceiving the public about UFO's before 2026?

By 2025, over 50% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Will there be another UFC event at the Las Vegas Sphere after UFC 306 by 2050?

Will Alex Pereira defeat Magomed Ankalaev at UFC 320?

Will UFC host another event in the MSG Sphere in last Vegas before 2028?

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