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Prediction markets for Ukrainian conflict
[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.37%chance
4826223
OptionVotes
20093
1745
Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
Aug 6, 4:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
76.6%chance
4012878
OptionVotes
1810
553
OptionProbability
69
37
2
OptionVotes
800
12
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?
Sep 15, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
60.69%chance
846679
OptionVotes
1144
687
Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2026?
Jan 1, 2:17 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM
11.2%chance
122464
OptionVotes
2816
355
Who will the Wikipedia article for the Russo-Ukrainian conflict say was the victor one year after ceasefire/peace?
Oct 13, 12:30 AMJan 2, 1:29 AM
92223
OptionProbability
69
18
13
OptionVotes
338
91
Will Russia occupy Dnipro ( Dnepropetrovs'k ) at the end of 2026?
Mar 5, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.26%chance
17776
OptionVotes
474
21
Will Elon Musk disable Ukraine's access to Starlink before the end of the war?
Oct 26, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
28.17%chance
4377
OptionVotes
1375
809
Will Russia publicly commit to an energy-infrastructure ceasefire with Ukraine before Nov 20, 2026?
Sep 23, 3:23 AMNov 20, 11:59 PM
8.21%chance
12329
OptionVotes
282
68
Will Ukraine control more territory after the war than it would have under the 2023 peace proposal?
Oct 27, 12:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.63%chance
450
OptionVotes
1050
758