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Prediction markets for US AI
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25%chance
459335172
OptionVotes
2661
2602
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
May 7, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.87%chance
15830286
OptionVotes
1350
1339
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65.48%chance
25117360
OptionVotes
2568
1703
If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?
Apr 22, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
47.79%chance
387401
OptionVotes
11726
7606
Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
Mar 30, 2:13 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM
12.36%chance
676653
OptionVotes
4229
1096
OptionVotes
1407
711
Will the US Government issue a statement criticising the Code of Practice of the EU AI Act in 2025?
May 16, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:21 PM
67.04%chance
303185
OptionVotes
2582
1615
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM
44.8%chance
302531
OptionVotes
1110
901
If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?
Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
25.6%chance
141992
OptionVotes
2498
936
Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?
Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.61%chance
261369
OptionVotes
1167
885
OptionVotes
1059
813
Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?
Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
55%chance
11274
OptionVotes
242
126
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