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Prediction markets for US AI
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.32%chance
480364022
OptionVotes
2874
2054
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
May 7, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.72%chance
16231447
OptionVotes
1363
1275
If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?
Apr 22, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.47%chance
5131182
OptionVotes
23110
6062
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
66.49%chance
25217587
OptionVotes
2633
1670
OptionVotes
1562
640
Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
Mar 30, 2:13 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM
12.36%chance
676653
OptionVotes
4229
1096
Will someone be convicted just for making AI porn in the US?
Mar 3, 10:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
75.09%chance
515787
OptionVotes
1772
308
Will the US Government issue a statement criticising the Code of Practice of the EU AI Act in 2025?
May 16, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:21 PM
67.04%chance
303185
OptionVotes
2582
1615
If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?
Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
17.31%chance
163092
OptionVotes
3237
737
Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2026?
Mar 31, 9:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
10.47%chance
232028
OptionVotes
2422
120
Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?
Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.3%chance
271379
OptionVotes
1177
880
Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?
Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
55%chance
11274
OptionVotes
242
126
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