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Prediction markets for Vie
OptionProbability
19
16
14
6
6
6
5
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
47
18
13
6
6
4
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.46%chance
2112898
OptionVotes
13764
3641
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?
Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM
20.97%chance
467509
OptionVotes
1959
462
If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?
May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
54.74%chance
965688
OptionProbability
1903
1563
OptionVotes
5573
420
Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?
Feb 17, 5:23 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
44%chance
162098
OptionVotes
1153
856
In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?
Sep 26, 1:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
41.9%chance
451869
OptionVotes
1147
717
Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?
Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
12.82%chance
201726
OptionVotes
2495
231
Will this Angine de Poitrine video get more views than the number of inhabitants of the Tokyo metro area within a year?
Aug 3, 10:29 AMAug 3, 10:23 AM
37.84%chance
7825
OptionVotes
1496
390
Will same-sex marriage become legal in Vietnam before 2030?
Mar 14, 1:11 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
70.28%chance
18459
OptionVotes
1037
878
Will a YouTube video of/about a Gen-AI film awards ceremony reach 1 million+ views within a year of release by 2030?"
Oct 3, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
52.49%chance
251
OptionVotes
1051
951
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