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Prediction markets for Vie
OptionProbability
18
15
14
6
6
6
5
5
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2026?
Jan 9, 2:03 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM
71.21%chance
5213392
OptionVotes
1672
424
OptionProbability
33
25
25
17
If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?
May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
55.98%chance
955648
OptionProbability
1951
1524
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?
Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM
70.49%chance
285036
OptionVotes
1478
697
OptionVotes
3582
645
Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.67%chance
171570
OptionVotes
6171
4649
In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?
Sep 26, 1:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
33%chance
391481
OptionVotes
1018
932
Will same-sex marriage become legal in Vietnam before 2030?
Mar 14, 1:11 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
74.04%chance
17409
OptionVotes
1008
987
Will Tom Scott's "This Video Has [] Views" title stop being updated before 2030?
Jul 13, 5:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
37.62%chance
11207
OptionVotes
1051
890
Will a YouTube video of/about a Gen-AI film awards ceremony reach 1 million+ views within a year of release by 2030?"
Oct 3, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
52.44%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
952
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