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Top stories

Gabbard Sparks CIA Backlash by Pulling Covert Officer’s Clearance

US Domestic Policy

Gabbard Sparks CIA Backlash by Pulling Covert Officer’s Clearance

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US Gov Appointments

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US Domestic Policy

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US Domestic Policy

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US Foreign Policy

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Prediction markets for Wall Street Journal

Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Feb 26, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.07%chance

275257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2989

335

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.77%chance

363297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1284

779

Will Michael Saylor be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

Mar 4, 7:47 PMFeb 5, 4:59 AM

14.83%chance

202697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1443

867

Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?

Jan 19, 9:56 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

12.88%chance

162540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2601

385

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

221493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

826

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 27, 2:12 PMNov 20, 7:59 AM

31.26%chance

91154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

674

Which of the following media outlets will close or undergo significant downsizing/restructuring before 2028?

Mar 2, 3:42 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

15766

OptionProbability

Epoch Times

NPR

Wired

Time

TMZ

Los Angeles Times

New York Post

USA Today

The Onion

Times of India

Gateway Pundit

Babylon Bee

Daily Wire

Newsmax

Breitbart

Al Jazeera

Associated Press (AP)

The Information

The Base Rate Times

Fox News

Wall Street Journal

CNN

BBC

NPR

New York Times

92

79

72

72

72

69

66

66

56

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

46

45

41

34

34

34

20

18

9

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

887

Will AI impersonation on social media cause a minimum of $50M+ in reported US corporate losses in 2026?

Feb 12, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.8%chance

7407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

822

US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028

Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

45.42%chance

5298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

912

US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026?

Aug 7, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.31%chance

6268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

856

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

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