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Prediction markets for Weapons
OptionVotes
1907
1098
OptionVotes
485
77
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?
Jul 5, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
33.68%chance
428190
OptionVotes
1108
587
OptionVotes
4356
230
Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
Oct 8, 9:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
25.11%chance
316999
OptionVotes
2469
969
OptionVotes
1470
565
International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?
Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.01%chance
255857
OptionVotes
14146
7120
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Jun 29, 8:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
9%chance
112415
OptionVotes
3180
314
OptionVotes
1045
905
Will the IDF fight against Abu Shabab (a Palestinian militia they supplied with weapons) by the end of 2026?
Jun 5, 10:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
27.81%chance
7615
OptionVotes
1625
629
Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?
Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
25.72%chance
11253
OptionVotes
1030
978
Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040
Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
27.32%chance
11176
OptionVotes
1030
981
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