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Prediction markets for Weapons
OptionVotes
457
87
OptionVotes
2000
500
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?
Jul 5, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
33.68%chance
428190
OptionVotes
1108
587
OptionVotes
4631
216
Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
Oct 8, 9:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
25.28%chance
317004
OptionVotes
2456
973
OptionVotes
1470
565
International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?
Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.01%chance
255857
OptionVotes
14146
7120
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
Aug 12, 10:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
13.75%chance
404548
OptionVotes
2340
252
OptionVotes
1045
905
Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?
Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
25.72%chance
11253
OptionVotes
1030
978
OptionVotes
1077
956
Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040
Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
27.32%chance
11176
OptionVotes
1030
981
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