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Prediction markets for Wikipedia
Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)
Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM
1.02%chance
73125453
OptionVotes
25871
431
Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031?
Jun 2, 7:17 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
22.33%chance
569384
OptionVotes
1865
536
Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?
Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
17.29%chance
263713
OptionVotes
2206
461
OptionVotes
3781
265
Will CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Jul 2, 11:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.21%chance
102486
OptionVotes
1357
737
Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?
Dec 29, 11:49 PMDec 29, 11:49 PM
22.44%chance
102295
OptionVotes
1859
538
Will Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom be listed on the Wikipedia best video games of all time?
Oct 14, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
54.26%chance
321940
OptionVotes
1242
467
Will Sydney Von Arx have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Oct 4, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.29%chance
51728
OptionVotes
2354
425
Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028
Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
40.31%chance
101108
OptionVotes
3585
2721
Will Illinois' AI safety bill have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Jul 8, 6:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
76.3%chance
10881
OptionVotes
1795
557
In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?
Sep 1, 4:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43.8%chance
17658
OptionVotes
1016
975
Will a VR video game make the Wikipedia "best of all time" list by 2030?
Nov 8, 8:36 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM
70.44%chance
17348
OptionVotes
1079
958
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