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Prediction markets for Wikipedia
Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)
Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM
4.32%chance
72109404
OptionVotes
10376
758
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?
Apr 6, 9:52 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM
11%chance
10013541
OptionVotes
3483
104
Will Wikipedia accept prediction markets as a source before 2030?
Dec 29, 3:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
36%chance
4411981
OptionVotes
1171
367
Will Israel be victorious in the current Gaza-Israel conflict? [According to Wikipedia]
Oct 10, 2:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
57.77%chance
389290
OptionVotes
1113
736
Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031?
Jun 2, 7:17 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
35.67%chance
538697
OptionVotes
1343
745
Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?
Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25%chance
243103
OptionVotes
1732
577
Will Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom be listed on the Wikipedia best video games of all time?
Oct 14, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
80.38%chance
291578
OptionVotes
1196
921
Will Wikipedia be unavailable in the UK before 2027 due to the OSA?
Jul 29, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.48%chance
201296
OptionVotes
1857
539
Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028
Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
40.31%chance
101108
OptionVotes
3585
2721
Will Macron's english wikipedia article mention the 2025 apparent domestic violence incident by mid 2026
Jun 2, 6:02 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM
35.31%chance
14689
OptionVotes
1354
739
In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?
Sep 1, 4:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
40.92%chance
16608
OptionVotes
1043
966
Will a VR video game make the Wikipedia "best of all time" list by 2030?
Nov 8, 8:36 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM
70.44%chance
17348
OptionVotes
1079
958
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