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Word Options News

    Prediction markets for Word Options

    Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

    Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
    22%chance
    783394355

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    7386

    3139

    Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

    Dec 8, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    213143711

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

    Artemis II crew

    Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

    Zohran Mamdani

    Mark Carney

    Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

    Epstein

    Sam Altman

    Xi Jinping

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Jerome Powell

    The People of Minnesota (and other variations)

    Jensen Huang

    Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

    Self Driving Cars (Uber, Waymo, etc.)

    [Next FOMC Chair]

    Robots (not self driving cars)

    46

    12

    10

    7

    5

    5

    4

    4

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

    Nov 30, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    181110755

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

    Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

    Zohran Mamdani

    Pete Hegseth

    Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

    Xi Jinping

    Marco Rubio

    Sam Altman

    Vladimir Putin

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Gavin Newsom

    Dario Amodei

    Claudia Sheinbaum

    Elon Musk

    AOC

    Jerome Powell

    Sydney Sweeney

    Demis Hassabis

    Larry Ellison

    Jensen Huang

    Gen Z

    Jeffrey Epstein

    Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

    Nicholas Maduro

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

    Lisa Su

    Fei-Fei Li

    Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

    Millenials

    Gen X

    Baby Boomers

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Scott Bessent

    Sundar Pichai

    Narendra Modi

    Ursula von der Leyen

    Jasmine Crockett

    Graham Platner

    Kevin Hassett

    Gen Alpha

    Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

    Ahmed al-Sharaa

    James Talarico

    Jon Ossoff

    Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]

    Bad Bunny

    Kevin Warsh

    53

    14

    6

    6

    4

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

    Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    12977307

    OptionProbability

    Massive fraud

    Multiple counts of perjury

    Advanced human technology

    Non-human intelligence

    36

    31

    23

    9

    When will the next US recession be?

    Aug 8, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:06 PM
    3923336

    OptionProbability

    Before Q1 2030

    Before Q3 2029

    Before Q1 2029

    Before Q3 2028

    Before Q1 2028

    Before Q3 2027

    Before Q1 2027

    Q1 2030 or later

    Before Q3 2026

    Before Q1 2026

    74

    66

    58

    56

    53

    41

    29

    27

    10

    1

    Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?

    Feb 8, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    3912295

    OptionProbability

    Nobody (linked market resolves NO)

    Other

    Google (eg Gemini)

    OpenAI (eg ChatGPT)

    Anthropic (eg Claude)

    IBM (eg Watson)

    Microsoft (eg Copilot)

    Mira (https://x.com/_Mira___Mira_)

    DeepSeek

    Amazon

    Meta

    72

    12

    8

    6

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    [Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

    Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    337165

    OptionProbability

    Other

    2026 [Apr-Jun]

    2026 [Jul-Sep]

    2026 [Oct-Dec]

    2027 [Jan-Mar]

    2026 [Jan-Mar]

    2025 [Oct-Dec]

    80

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    1

    What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election?

    Jul 12, 5:20 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM
    334944

    OptionProbability

    One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK

    5 or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK in a coordinated way

    Weak electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies

    Strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies

    The leaders of Reform UK and the Conservative Party announce a merge of the parties

    One or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party

    Very strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives do not run against each other in any constituencies

    Richard Tice defects to the Conservative Party

    3 or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party in a coordinated way

    Nigel Farage defects to the Conservative Party

    100

    39

    29

    25

    24

    16

    15

    12

    12

    8

    Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

    Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    32.3%chance
    271379

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1177

    880

    Brazil 2026 World Cup Squad: Which players will be on the final list (26-man squad)?

    Feb 10, 2:11 AMJun 10, 11:59 PM
    14615

    OptionProbability

    João Pedro

    Endrick

    Lucas Paquetá

    Neymar

    Estevão

    83

    74

    73

    36

    7

    Will Diablo V have a non-isomorphic camera?

    Mar 21, 7:24 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    8.5%chance
    3154

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    239

    50

    A free web browser can search for text within images on web pages, by mid 2027

    Nov 25, 9:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
    50.19%chance
    459

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

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