OptionVotes
YES
NO
1891
1299
OptionProbability
2025-2030
2035-2039
2030-2034
2024
2040-2044
2045-2049
2050-2054
2055-2059
2060 onwards
Other
72
12
7
3
1
By 2030
By 2027
77
44
Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work
Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)
Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks
Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues
Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery
55
47
46
45
202
176
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