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Top stories

Grok AI App Surpasses Google, Ranks 5th Overall and 2nd in Productivity Globally with 1.25M Ratings

Grok AI App Surpasses Google, Ranks 5th Overall and 2nd in Productivity Globally with 1.25M Ratings

Authors

6

1 year ago

Prediction markets for WSJ

Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?

Oct 17, 1:16 AMJan 10, 11:59 PM

4.59%chance

168108632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94142

5505

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

15.73%chance

16740693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24642

5236

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.46%chance

2112898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13764

3641

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Apr 9, 8:18 PMDec 31, 9:24 PM

265813

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Peter Todd

Dorian Nakamoto

Craig Wright

33

29

15

11

7

4

2

1

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.62%chance

292141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1762

673

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

Jun 18, 4:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.33%chance

101284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2138

512

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.68%chance

241221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1320

788

Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMFeb 3, 12:59 AM

45%chance

17997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

942

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?

Dec 5, 3:27 PMNov 9, 6:59 AM

56.45%chance

7225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

878

Will the WSJ do an expose-style piece on Bryan Johnson before 2027?

Feb 11, 10:28 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

60.87%chance

6124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

301

296

Will Hunter x Hunter get a new anime adaptation before the end of 2030?

Dec 21, 5:45 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

54.75%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

909

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 14, 2025
Aug 14, 2025
Software
AI Products
Tech
Grok AI App Surpasses Google, Ranks 5th Overall and 2nd in Productivity Globally with 1.25M Ratings
Authors
6
1 year ago

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