WSJ News

Grok AI App Surpasses Google, Ranks 5th Overall and 2nd in Productivity Globally with 1.25M Ratings

10 months ago

Will Anthropic become profitable this year?

May 6, 7:39 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

91.66%chance

14756875

OptionVotes

YES

6423

484

If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

Feb 18, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

1616941

OptionVotes

YES

9940

101

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.5%chance

2010838

OptionVotes

YES

15423

3517

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Apr 9, 8:18 PMDec 31, 9:24 PM

255760

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Peter Todd

Dorian Nakamoto

Craig Wright

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.52%chance

292067

OptionVotes

YES

1836

655

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

Jun 18, 4:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.73%chance

101260

OptionVotes

YES

2046

535

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.29%chance

231058

OptionVotes

YES

1185

864

Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMFeb 3, 12:59 AM

45%chance

17997

OptionVotes

YES

1034

942

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

1093

775

Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?

Dec 5, 3:27 PMNov 9, 6:59 AM

56.45%chance

7225

OptionVotes

YES

1139

878

Will the WSJ do an expose-style piece on Bryan Johnson before 2027?

Feb 11, 10:28 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

62.92%chance

5114

OptionVotes

YES

317

286

Will Hunter x Hunter get a new anime adaptation before the end of 2030?

Dec 21, 5:45 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

54.75%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

1100

909

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Aug 14, 2025
Aug 14, 2025
Software
AI Products
Tech
Grok AI App Surpasses Google, Ranks 5th Overall and 2nd in Productivity Globally with 1.25M Ratings
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10 months ago

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Will Anthropic become profitable this year?

If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?

Will the WSJ do an expose-style piece on Bryan Johnson before 2027?

Will Hunter x Hunter get a new anime adaptation before the end of 2030?

Latest stories

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