WSJ News

Grok AI App Surpasses Google, Ranks 5th Overall and 2nd in Productivity Globally with 1.25M Ratings

9 months ago

If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

Feb 18, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

1615971

OptionVotes

YES

9950

101

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.5%chance

2010838

OptionVotes

YES

15423

3517

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Apr 9, 8:18 PMDec 31, 9:24 PM

235139

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Peter Todd

Nick Szabo

Len Sassaman

Dorian Nakamoto

Craig Wright

Will Anthropic become profitable this year?

May 6, 7:39 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

14.93%chance

242609

OptionVotes

YES

2387

419

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.52%chance

292067

OptionVotes

YES

1836

655

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

Jun 18, 4:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.73%chance

101260

OptionVotes

YES

2046

535

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.29%chance

231058

OptionVotes

YES

1185

864

Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMFeb 3, 12:59 AM

40.39%chance

16917

OptionVotes

YES

1050

954

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

1093

775

Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?

Dec 5, 3:27 PMNov 9, 6:59 AM

54.66%chance

4152

OptionVotes

YES

1098

911

Will the WSJ do an expose-style piece on Bryan Johnson before 2027?

Feb 11, 10:28 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

62.92%chance

5114

OptionVotes

YES

317

286

Will Hunter x Hunter get a new anime adaptation before the end of 2030?

Dec 21, 5:45 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

54.75%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

1100

909

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Aug 14, 2025
Aug 14, 2025
Software
AI Products
Tech
Grok AI App Surpasses Google, Ranks 5th Overall and 2nd in Productivity Globally with 1.25M Ratings
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9 months ago

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Prediction markets for WSJ

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If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Will Anthropic become profitable this year?

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?

Will the WSJ do an expose-style piece on Bryan Johnson before 2027?

Will Hunter x Hunter get a new anime adaptation before the end of 2030?

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