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Prediction markets for WSJ
Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?
Oct 17, 1:16 AMJan 10, 11:59 PM
4.64%chance
169108657
OptionVotes
93625
5530
If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?
Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM
15.73%chance
16740693
OptionVotes
24642
5236
Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.46%chance
2112898
OptionVotes
13764
3641
OptionProbability
33
29
15
11
7
4
2
1
Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?
Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.62%chance
292141
OptionVotes
1762
673
OptionVotes
2138
512
If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?
Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.68%chance
241221
OptionVotes
1320
788
Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?
Apr 3, 4:53 AMFeb 3, 12:59 AM
45%chance
17997
OptionVotes
1034
942
Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?
Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM
64.02%chance
20691
OptionVotes
1093
775
Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?
Dec 5, 3:27 PMNov 9, 6:59 AM
56.45%chance
7225
OptionVotes
1139
878
Will the WSJ do an expose-style piece on Bryan Johnson before 2027?
Feb 11, 10:28 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM
60.87%chance
6124
OptionVotes
301
296
Will Hunter x Hunter get a new anime adaptation before the end of 2030?
Dec 21, 5:45 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
54.75%chance
1100
OptionVotes
1100
909
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