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Prediction markets for WWII

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

8.27%chance

125474759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3330

300

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?

Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

68.15%chance

366885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1463

684

has WWIII begun?

Apr 15, 6:52 AMJun 1, 11:59 AM

4.11%chance

396760

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2468

847

Will the events leading to WWIII be directly caused by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand (the band)?

Aug 15, 11:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.73%chance

211561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2486

890

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2030?

Feb 8, 8:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.05%chance

18763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

848

WWIII stock

Apr 9, 8:33 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

16347

OptionProbability

NO

YES

309

254

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2040?

Feb 8, 8:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23%chance

9194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

289

112

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2050?

Feb 8, 8:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.11%chance

5157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

57

Will someone famous thought to have died be revealed to have not actually died (before August 2027)?

Nov 16, 8:39 AMAug 2, 6:59 AM

59.59%chance

6123

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

118

Will Spain switch to GMT/Western Europe Time by 2030?

Apr 5, 7:16 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

38.86%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

136

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