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North Yorkshire Moor Wildfire Triggers 18 Explosions of WWII Bombs on Former 1940s Tank Training Ground

10 months ago

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

4.5%chance

128483647

OptionVotes

YES

4608

217

Will Wikipedia on or before January 1st 2030 list WWIII as having started already on April 1, 2026

Mar 14, 4:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.43%chance

368707

OptionVotes

YES

3099

323

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?

Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

73.39%chance

387268

OptionVotes

YES

1661

602

Will the events leading to WWIII be directly caused by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand (the band)?

Aug 15, 11:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.47%chance

211811

OptionVotes

YES

2736

884

Will the S&P 500 enter bear market territory (20%+ decline from peak) by June 30, 2026?

Apr 2, 4:57 PMJun 30, 12:00 AM

2.45%chance

181677

OptionVotes

YES

628

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2030?

Feb 8, 8:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9%chance

191517

OptionVotes

YES

2254

756

WWIII stock

Apr 9, 8:33 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

16347

OptionProbability

YES

309

254

Will the World Tension Index get above 100 in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:41 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

47%chance

8230

OptionVotes

YES

106

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2050?

Feb 8, 8:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.56%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

258

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2040?

Feb 8, 8:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25%chance

10199

OptionVotes

YES

272

117

Will Spain switch to GMT/Western Europe Time by 2030?

Apr 5, 7:16 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

28.98%chance

6199

OptionVotes

YES

240

111

Will someone famous thought to have died be revealed to have not actually died (before August 2027)?

Nov 16, 8:39 AMAug 2, 6:59 AM

55.71%chance

7133

OptionVotes

YES

170

128

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Britain
Natural Disasters
Environment
North Yorkshire Moor Wildfire Triggers 18 Explosions of WWII Bombs on Former 1940s Tank Training Ground
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10 months ago

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Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

Will Wikipedia on or before January 1st 2030 list WWIII as having started already on April 1, 2026

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?

Will the events leading to WWIII be directly caused by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand (the band)?

Will the S&P 500 enter bear market territory (20%+ decline from peak) by June 30, 2026?

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2030?

WWIII stock

Will the World Tension Index get above 100 in 2026?

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2050?

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2040?

Will Spain switch to GMT/Western Europe Time by 2030?

Will someone famous thought to have died be revealed to have not actually died (before August 2027)?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram