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Prediction markets for WWII
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM
10%chance
130486806
OptionVotes
3000
333
Will Wikipedia on or before January 1st 2030 list WWIII as having started already on April 1, 2026
Mar 14, 4:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.72%chance
368759
OptionVotes
3047
328
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?
Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
78.06%chance
397543
OptionVotes
1886
530
Will the events leading to WWIII be directly caused by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand (the band)?
Aug 15, 11:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
2.37%chance
222709
OptionVotes
2838
881
Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2030?
Feb 8, 8:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
9%chance
191517
OptionVotes
2254
756
By the end of 2027: Germany will be actively engaged in war or there will be acts of war on German Territory.
Apr 4, 9:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8%chance
13832
OptionVotes
385
175
OptionVotes
396
25
OptionProbability
309
254
Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2050?
Feb 8, 8:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
34.42%chance
8243
OptionVotes
196
66
OptionVotes
116
37
OptionVotes
111
66
Will Nuremberg 2.0 over pandemics become a reality before 2100?
Sep 9, 12:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6%chance
12
OptionVotes
100
100
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