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North Yorkshire Moor Wildfire Triggers 18 Explosions of WWII Bombs on Former 1940s Tank Training Ground

8 months ago

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

3.5%chance

128483207

OptionVotes

YES

5251

190

Will Wikipedia on or before January 1st 2030 list WWIII as having started already on April 1, 2026

Mar 14, 4:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.42%chance

368705

OptionVotes

YES

3101

322

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?

Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

73.39%chance

387268

OptionVotes

YES

1661

602

Will the events leading to WWIII be directly caused by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand (the band)?

Aug 15, 11:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.47%chance

211811

OptionVotes

YES

2736

884

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2030?

Feb 8, 8:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9%chance

191517

OptionVotes

YES

2254

756

🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?

Apr 6, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.97%chance

61120

OptionVotes

YES

107

Will the S&P 500 enter bear market territory (20%+ decline from peak) by June 30, 2026?

Apr 2, 4:57 PMJun 30, 12:00 AM

10.74%chance

151091

OptionVotes

YES

179

By the end of 2027: Germany will be actively engaged in war or there will be acts of war on German Territory.

Apr 4, 9:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.67%chance

11429

OptionVotes

YES

217

126

WWIII stock

Apr 9, 8:33 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

16347

OptionProbability

YES

309

254

Will the World Tension Index get above 100 in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:41 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

47%chance

8230

OptionVotes

YES

106

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2050?

Feb 8, 8:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.56%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

258

Will someone famous thought to have died be revealed to have not actually died (before August 2027)?

Nov 16, 8:39 AMAug 2, 6:59 AM

55.71%chance

7133

OptionVotes

YES

170

128

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Britain
Natural Disasters
Environment
North Yorkshire Moor Wildfire Triggers 18 Explosions of WWII Bombs on Former 1940s Tank Training Ground
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8 months ago

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Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

Will Wikipedia on or before January 1st 2030 list WWIII as having started already on April 1, 2026

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?

Will the events leading to WWIII be directly caused by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand (the band)?

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2030?

🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?

Will the S&P 500 enter bear market territory (20%+ decline from peak) by June 30, 2026?

By the end of 2027: Germany will be actively engaged in war or there will be acts of war on German Territory.

WWIII stock

Will the World Tension Index get above 100 in 2026?

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2050?

Will someone famous thought to have died be revealed to have not actually died (before August 2027)?

Latest stories

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