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Prediction markets for WWII
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM
4.5%chance
128483647
OptionVotes
4608
217
Will Wikipedia on or before January 1st 2030 list WWIII as having started already on April 1, 2026
Mar 14, 4:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.43%chance
368707
OptionVotes
3099
323
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?
Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
73.39%chance
387268
OptionVotes
1661
602
Will the events leading to WWIII be directly caused by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand (the band)?
Aug 15, 11:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
2.47%chance
211811
OptionVotes
2736
884
Will the S&P 500 enter bear market territory (20%+ decline from peak) by June 30, 2026?
Apr 2, 4:57 PMJun 30, 12:00 AM
2.45%chance
181677
OptionVotes
628
63
Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2030?
Feb 8, 8:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
9%chance
191517
OptionVotes
2254
756
OptionProbability
309
254
OptionVotes
106
94
Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2050?
Feb 8, 8:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
20.56%chance
6215
OptionVotes
258
43
Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2040?
Feb 8, 8:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
25%chance
10199
OptionVotes
272
117
OptionVotes
240
111
Will someone famous thought to have died be revealed to have not actually died (before August 2027)?
Nov 16, 8:39 AMAug 2, 6:59 AM
55.71%chance
7133
OptionVotes
170
128
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