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Top stories

Australian Inflation Hits 12-Month High 2.8%, Tests RBA Outlook

Australian Inflation Hits 12-Month High 2.8%, Tests RBA Outlook

Authors

16

1 year ago

Prediction markets for ABS

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.42%chance

452112383305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27220

17343

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.93%chance

27022466295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14996

1282

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.87%chance

563470419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3104

2046

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.18%chance

369286789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2761

998

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.68%chance

393148207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7464

6777

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.19%chance

7516049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12043

8303

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

59.54%chance

3215777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12130

8244

Will I be able to purchase 1 kg of tungsten for under 150$ by 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.56%chance

168899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15076

6633

Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?

Jul 28, 1:15 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

59.11%chance

486827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10562

9090

California's AB-1127 ("Glock ban") struck down before 2030?

Oct 14, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.95%chance

377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

By what season will full ABS be implemented in the MLB?

Mar 16, 11:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

Not by 2029

28

28

28

17

When will AB lose his V card?

Dec 23, 6:44 AMDec 23, 6:44 AM

110

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

66

50

50

50

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Australia
Economics
Business
Australian Inflation Hits 12-Month High 2.8%, Tests RBA Outlook
Authors
16
1 year ago

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