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Top stories

Australian Inflation Hits 12-Month High 2.8%, Tests RBA Outlook

Australian Inflation Hits 12-Month High 2.8%, Tests RBA Outlook

Authors

16

10 months ago

Prediction markets for ABS

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.55%chance

448712289729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25618

18045

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.89%chance

26872439947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14383

1362

Aba Stock

Oct 29, 3:33 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

29571182117

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2555

2039

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.67%chance

556467615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2818

2386

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.87%chance

354261898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2038

1317

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.21%chance

389146767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8075

6113

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.05%chance

659608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11983

8345

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

49.93%chance

209446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10015

9985

Will I be able to purchase 1 kg of tungsten for under 150$ by 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.82%chance

167667

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14308

6989

California's AB-1127 ("Glock ban") struck down before 2030?

Oct 14, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.95%chance

377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

By what season will full ABS be implemented in the MLB?

Mar 16, 11:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

Not by 2029

28

28

28

17

When will AB lose his V card?

Dec 23, 6:44 AMDec 23, 6:44 AM

110

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

66

50

50

50

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Australia
Economics
Business
Australian Inflation Hits 12-Month High 2.8%, Tests RBA Outlook
Authors
16
10 months ago

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