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Top stories

Australian Inflation Hits 12-Month High 2.8%, Tests RBA Outlook

Australian Inflation Hits 12-Month High 2.8%, Tests RBA Outlook

Authors

16

7 months ago

Prediction markets for ABS

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.05%chance

433011800090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25976

17882

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.32%chance

26492353698

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14083

1405

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46%chance

547459947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2969

2196

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63%chance

342228245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2044

1314

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.23%chance

369133315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2209

2181

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

49.93%chance

199346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10014

9986

Will I be able to purchase 1 kg of tungsten for under 150$ by 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

165456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14919

6703

What season will ABS (automatic ball-strike system) be incorporated into a full MLB (Major League Baseball) season?

Mar 30, 11:38 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

91739

OptionProbability

2026

2027, later, or never.

2024

2025

99

1

0

0

Will Amit have visible abs by April 25, 2026?

May 7, 9:19 PMApr 26, 12:00 AM

84.92%chance

10400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

237

42

California's AB-1127 ("Glock ban") struck down before 2030?

Oct 14, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.95%chance

377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

By what season will full ABS be implemented in the MLB?

Mar 16, 11:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

Not by 2029

28

28

28

17

When will AB lose his V card?

Dec 23, 6:44 AMDec 23, 6:44 AM

110

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

66

50

50

50

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Australia
Economics
Business
Australian Inflation Hits 12-Month High 2.8%, Tests RBA Outlook
Authors
16
7 months ago

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