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Prediction markets for Across
Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?
Jan 22, 4:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
6.31%chance
2146436
OptionVotes
36746
5645
In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?
Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
73.07%chance
18312142
OptionVotes
3887
1744
Will it be possible to search for text across ALL YouTube videos by 2026?
Mar 9, 3:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
38.3%chance
155033
OptionVotes
1123
890
Will a bridge across the Strait of Messina between mainland Italy and Sicily have started construction by 2030?
Jul 5, 9:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
78.93%chance
284020
OptionVotes
1970
439
Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before 2026?
Oct 4, 5:35 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM
14.24%chance
123681
OptionVotes
2454
407
Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before July 2026?
Oct 4, 5:36 AMJun 29, 10:59 PM
40.2%chance
142701
OptionVotes
1220
820
Will, on average, more than 40% of people say the Monarchy is good for the UK, across 2025?
Sep 19, 4:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
85%chance
322574
OptionVotes
2190
586
Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.
Sep 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.74%chance
201289
OptionVotes
1647
825
In twenty years, the best evidence will suggest that sperm counts are substantially declining across most of the world
Jan 28, 2:49 AMJan 28, 5:59 AM
65.03%chance
271259
OptionVotes
1124
916
Will @EliezerYudkowsky profit on net across all #superconductivity markets?
Aug 9, 11:49 PMFeb 1, 12:59 PM
75.45%chance
151123
OptionVotes
1373
767
Vibe-coding software reaches 100M+ MAU (summed across all platforms) by 2026 EOY?
Oct 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
27.75%chance
5670
OptionVotes
1614
620
If we ever come across a life form that didn't originate on earth, would it be mainly carbon based?
Nov 22, 9:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
76.26%chance
13484
OptionVotes
1353
854
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