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Prediction markets for ACS
OptionVotes
3961
253
[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.63%chance
401281850
OptionVotes
15578
2885
U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?
Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.16%chance
4344500
OptionVotes
128439
102675
Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by
Apr 7, 1:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM
81.82%chance
824290
OptionVotes
21552
3763
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
31.26%chance
7024069
OptionVotes
14460
7017
In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?
Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
35%chance
18914872
OptionVotes
3617
1599
Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?
Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM
39.95%chance
1412824
OptionVotes
12260
8157
Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?
Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
30.2%chance
2910792
OptionVotes
16061
5454
Will ZeroPath (YC S24) be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?
Jul 15, 9:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
19.98%chance
296245
OptionVotes
14805
8406
Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?
Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM
61.66%chance
183552
OptionVotes
11364
9035
Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2036?
Jul 14, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.59%chance
7575
OptionVotes
6240
5801
OptionProbability
133
41
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