AGI News

Meta Restructures AI Division Into Four Teams With $1B Hiring Spree, Midjourney Partnership, and Alexandr Wang Leading Superintelligence Effort

1 year ago

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10771143313

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2027-2028

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2049-2050

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2026-2027

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2024-2025

2025-2026

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.41%chance

198384813

OptionVotes

YES

155442

22908

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

3.65%chance

350308151

OptionVotes

YES

4715

749

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

29%chance

348176669

OptionVotes

YES

1098

904

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

51.66%chance

351142219

OptionVotes

YES

1555

749

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.55%chance

259112244

OptionVotes

YES

2469

388

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.55%chance

10358928

OptionVotes

YES

144964

69643

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.44%chance

12638679

OptionVotes

YES

12739

8335

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2519584

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Huge alignment effort

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Alignment relatively easy

Capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

New AI paradigm

Brakes not hit

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Major capability limit in AI

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Alignment extra hard

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.78%chance

10812066

OptionVotes

YES

3025

1894

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

185405

OptionVotes

YES

10000

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

49.65%chance

461868

OptionVotes

YES

309

111

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Meta Restructures AI Division Into Four Teams With $1B Hiring Spree, Midjourney Partnership, and Alexandr Wang Leading Superintelligence Effort
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AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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Telegram