AGI News

Meta Restructures AI Division Into Four Teams With $1B Hiring Spree, Midjourney Partnership, and Alexandr Wang Leading Superintelligence Effort

9 months ago

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10741129682

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2028-2029

2031-2032

2032-2033

2027-2028

2026-2027

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2049-2050

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2024-2025

2025-2026

2047-2048

2048-2049

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

3.06%chance

309228241

OptionVotes

YES

5460

724

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.58%chance

103162323

OptionVotes

YES

108745

17863

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

14.59%chance

305154397

OptionVotes

YES

1736

882

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

35%chance

304121866

OptionVotes

YES

1232

1177

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19%chance

255108336

OptionVotes

YES

2117

458

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

25.28%chance

25495284

OptionVotes

YES

1144

932

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

66.99%chance

8957065

OptionVotes

YES

143123

70539

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.44%chance

12337037

OptionVotes

YES

14083

6658

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.59%chance

10210820

OptionVotes

YES

3425

1696

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

154159

OptionVotes

YES

13624

8759

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

49.65%chance

461868

OptionVotes

YES

309

111

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Meta Restructures AI Division Into Four Teams With $1B Hiring Spree, Midjourney Partnership, and Alexandr Wang Leading Superintelligence Effort
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AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Latest stories

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