AGI News

Meta Restructures AI Division Into Four Teams With $1B Hiring Spree, Midjourney Partnership, and Alexandr Wang Leading Superintelligence Effort

6 months ago

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10671113155

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2028-2029

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2049-2050

2027-2028

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2026-2027

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

5%chance

295218429

OptionVotes

YES

3612

798

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.49%chance

92161256

OptionVotes

YES

112159

17112

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

16.61%chance

288142536

OptionVotes

YES

1548

916

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

32.46%chance

289112679

OptionVotes

YES

1269

1185

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24%chance

24299057

OptionVotes

YES

1835

535

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23.26%chance

23290231

OptionVotes

YES

1236

902

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

65.7%chance

7051445

OptionVotes

YES

139076

72591

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.2%chance

11636496

OptionVotes

YES

14299

6435

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.59%chance

10210820

OptionVotes

YES

3425

1696

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

239972

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Capability limit in AI

Huge alignment effort

New AI paradigm

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Major capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

Alignment relatively easy

Brakes not hit

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Alignment extra hard

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

46.44%chance

461858

OptionVotes

YES

320

101

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Meta Restructures AI Division Into Four Teams With $1B Hiring Spree, Midjourney Partnership, and Alexandr Wang Leading Superintelligence Effort
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AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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Telegram