AGI News

Meta Restructures AI Division Into Four Teams With $1B Hiring Spree, Midjourney Partnership, and Alexandr Wang Leading Superintelligence Effort

10 months ago

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10751131473

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2028-2029

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2027-2028

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2049-2050

2026-2027

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

2.85%chance

311232411

OptionVotes

YES

5786

714

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.06%chance

109171214

OptionVotes

YES

81796

26531

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

14.33%chance

310156274

OptionVotes

YES

1763

877

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

38.6%chance

308127429

OptionVotes

YES

1298

1063

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.95%chance

257109895

OptionVotes

YES

2056

473

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.07%chance

26397016

OptionVotes

YES

1072

958

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.02%chance

9257160

OptionVotes

YES

143218

70492

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.47%chance

12337043

OptionVotes

YES

14077

6665

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.59%chance

10310880

OptionVotes

YES

3425

1696

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

154159

OptionVotes

YES

13624

8759

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

49.65%chance

461868

OptionVotes

YES

309

111

Latest stories

Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
AI Modeling
AI Products
AI
Meta Restructures AI Division Into Four Teams With $1B Hiring Spree, Midjourney Partnership, and Alexandr Wang Leading Superintelligence Effort
Authors
40
10 months ago

Join our channels

Get the latest stories live on any device.

WhatsApp
Top Stories
Join
Telegram
Top Stories
Join

AGI News

Top stories

Prediction markets for AGI

Prediction markets for AGI

Prediction markets for AGI

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram