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Prediction markets for AGI
OptionProbability
12
10
9
9
8
7
6
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
OptionVotes
5550
721
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.56%chance
154223270
OptionVotes
58291
46413
OptionVotes
1527
920
OptionVotes
1284
1087
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
18%chance
259111680
OptionVotes
2185
443
OptionVotes
1000
965
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
67.33%chance
9558194
OptionVotes
144253
69986
OptionVotes
14097
6644
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30.59%chance
10310880
OptionVotes
3425
1696
Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.6%chance
154159
OptionVotes
13624
8759
When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?
Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM
49.65%chance
461868
OptionVotes
309
111
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