AI Studio News

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.2%chance

387310093606

OptionVotes

YES

10868

10484

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

46.7%chance

11445410

OptionVotes

YES

1222

586

Will Open AI be sued by Studio Ghibli or block Ghibification in 2025?

Mar 26, 6:08 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10%chance

778715

OptionVotes

YES

300

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65.2%chance

506015

OptionVotes

YES

1310

770

Will OpenAI form a partnership with the following studios/companies for using models for AI generated videos? (By 2026)

Mar 20, 12:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

313223

OptionProbability

Netflix

Twitch

Instagram

Tiktok

Snapchat

Warner brothers

Apple

Disney

Twitter

Google

If the big 2028 AI Movie market resolves YES, which of the following will be true 3 months later?

Mar 18, 2:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15784

OptionProbability

Singularity

Studio-quality AI-generated remakes of at least 3 movies are publicly available

At least 100 AI-generated original movies, more than 2 hours long, are publicly available and watched by 100k people each

A studio quality 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover exists

Studio-quality AI-generated remakes of at least 100 movies are publicly available

A 120 minute Star Trek/Star Wars crossover exists and has Imdb score >=6

Netflix stock price lower than $50 or higher than $5,000

AI generated remakes of at least 100 cinematic movies are publicly available and watched by at least 100k people each

AI entirely replaces indie game developers in the future?

Aug 8, 3:39 AMSep 7, 3:39 AM

7.45%chance

5520

OptionVotes

YES

352

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Feb 20, 7:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.49%chance

15236

OptionVotes

YES

1128

953

Will Google's model accessible through AI studio successfully navigate 10x10 maze before 2026?

Jul 31, 10:55 PMDec 30, 11:37 PM

56.62%chance

8225

OptionVotes

YES

114

Disney vs Midjourney lawsuit

Jun 22, 12:18 PMJan 1, 11:53 AM

5220

OptionProbability

Lawsuit is settled out of court

Lawsuit over before 2029

Midjourney implements content filters to prevent copyright infringement²

Lawsuit over before 2028

Midjorney pays Disney and/or Universal⁴

Midjourney appeals the court's decision

Midjourney continues operations without changes at the end³

Lawsuit over before 2027

Midjourney no longer provides image generation by the end of it¹

Midjourney agrees to licensing terms with Disney and/or Universal

Midjourney lawsuit damages above how much?

Jun 11, 6:10 PMDec 31, 5:58 PM

9202

Will Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?

Jun 20, 6:22 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM

52.86%chance

4191

OptionVotes

YES

1059

944

AI Studio News

Prediction markets for AI Studio

Prediction markets for AI Studio

Prediction markets for AI Studio

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Will Open AI be sued by Studio Ghibli or block Ghibification in 2025?

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Will OpenAI form a partnership with the following studios/companies for using models for AI generated videos? (By 2026)

If the big 2028 AI Movie market resolves YES, which of the following will be true 3 months later?

AI entirely replaces indie game developers in the future?

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Will Google's model accessible through AI studio successfully navigate 10x10 maze before 2026?

Disney vs Midjourney lawsuit

Midjourney lawsuit damages above how much?

Will Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?

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