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Prediction markets for AL
Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?
Oct 30, 5:06 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
86.06%chance
15038818
OptionVotes
2827
800
Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?
Apr 24, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29%chance
756080
OptionVotes
2300
2259
Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?
Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM
14.4%chance
504152
OptionVotes
1057
959
Ahmed al Ahmed awarded Cross of Valour for disarming Bondi shooter by EOY 2026?
Dec 14, 12:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
73.46%chance
101932
OptionVotes
1664
601
Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?
Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.04%chance
19700
OptionVotes
1003
994
OptionVotes
1003
939
Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
Dec 29, 8:34 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM
87.74%chance
13618
OptionVotes
475
65
Will most digital entertainment be Al generated by 2045?
Feb 6, 6:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
63.54%chance
27578
OptionVotes
1096
928
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
Feb 10, 1:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41.52%chance
7199
OptionVotes
137
104
Will "Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 1, 10:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.25%chance
4158
OptionVotes
1003
982
Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?
Mar 29, 1:29 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM
25.01%chance
595
OptionVotes
1073
958
Will an antibiotic peptide from Santos-Junior et al 2024 be used to cure a human of an infection before 2035?
Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
47.87%chance
375
OptionVotes
1043
958
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