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Prediction markets for AL
Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?
Oct 30, 5:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
89.91%chance
15038718
OptionVotes
3570
700
OptionVotes
7549
233
Will Science retract the paper on Wuhan wet market COVID origins (Worobey et al. 2022) by the end of 2025?
Jan 21, 3:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1.02%chance
1111068
OptionVotes
10089
119
Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?
Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM
28.3%chance
705905
OptionVotes
2357
2237
Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?
Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM
18.07%chance
443696
OptionVotes
1000
841
Were there at least 200 deaths in the Gaza al-Ahli Arab Hospital explosion?
Oct 21, 4:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
73.45%chance
301595
OptionVotes
1364
679
OptionVotes
1781
561
Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?
Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.04%chance
19700
OptionVotes
1003
994
OptionVotes
1003
939
Will most digital entertainment be Al generated by 2045?
Feb 6, 6:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
63.54%chance
27578
OptionVotes
1096
928
Will an antibiotic peptide from Santos-Junior et al 2024 be used to cure a human of an infection before 2035?
Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
47.87%chance
375
OptionVotes
1043
958
OptionVotes
102
98
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