All Blacks News

NO

Mainstream Media

Letitia James

January 6th Committee

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

LQBTQ / Trans People

Migrants

The Bidens (Joe, Ashley, Jill, and/or Hunter Biden)

Elon Musk

Anthony Fauci

Gen. Mark Milley

Universities

Paper straws

Blinken

Maine

Due Process

Alejandro Mayorkas

Jack Smith

Zohran Mamdani

Leakers

National Institutes of Health

Bruce Springsteen

The New York Times (NYT)

Panama

Alexander Vindman

Solar Energy

Stephen Colbert

Joe Biden

The Atlantic

Greenland

Barack Obama

Beyoncé

Ann Selzer

the National Archives

Rosie O'Donnell

Michael Cohen

Fluoride

Nancy Pelosi

Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Denmark

Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic columnist)

John Kelly

Public Libraries

The Metropolitan Museum of Art

Miles Taylor

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Bill Barr

Any non-Tesla electric car manufacturer

Seth Myers

Taylor Swift

Vaccine mandates

Emmanuel Macron

Jimmy Kimmel

Christopher Steele

Wikipedia

Ken Klippenstein

TIME magazine

Susan Collins (R-ME)

Any Manifold User

Mike Pence

Jeff Bezos

Mariann Edgar Budde

Jen Psaki (former White House Press Secretary and current MSNBC host)

SSRIs

WIRED Magazine

Liz Cheney

E. Jean Carroll

Tucker Carlson

Brad Raffensperger

BlueSky

American sign language signers or interpreters

JD Vance

The population of penguins and seabirds on the Heard and McDonald Islands

Pete Hegseth

Black Nationals

Alec Baldwin

Chappell Roan

Bill Burr

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

It won't release during 2024

It will be trending on Twitter the day of release. A name like "GPT", "OpenAI", "GPT-5" could all count. Checked from a clean account.

It will be able to translate a page of manga (JP image -> EN text)

It will support at least 199.5k context

It will be trained on reasoning traces from o1/o3 type models

It will support at least 499.5k context

It will support at least 999.5k context

It will have a different logo color from green, black, or purple(based on resolution of https://manifold.markets/MiraBot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=TWlyYUJvdA)

It will be a model router.

Output tokens will be cheaper than GPT-4 Turbo(as of March 12, 2024)

Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in June 2024

It will use a new architecture meaningfully different from GPT-4

Its knowledge cutoff will be in or later than July 2024

OpenAI will claim it faster than GPT-4 Turbo

It will be ranked the highest model on the LMSys Chatbot Arena, and not overtaken by another model, 3 months after the release date.

It will be able to pass jim's "agents benchmark"

There will be credible reporting that it is or was "excessively horny" either before or up to three months after release

Will be claimed to be AGI by the New York times up to 3 months after release.

Will be claimed to be AGI by OpenAI up to 3 months after release.

Its knowledge cutoff will be in or before April 2024

Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in May 2024

Will be claimed to be AGI by Wikipedia up to 3 months after release.

It will release in April 2024 or before

It will release between May and October 2024

It will release in November 2024

It will release in December 2024

Ron Weasley is a redhead

Harry Potter is white

At least one named character from the book has their race changed

Snape is black

Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

Premieres in 2027

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

Malfoy has white blonde hair

Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

Fred and George are twins irl

Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

There’s a scene set before Harry is born

Peeves is a reoccurring character

Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

Hermione is white

mandrake root on screen

A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

A house elf is shown on screen

Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

It ends on a cliff hanger

The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

It's woke

The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

At least one of the actors is transgender

VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

We get AGI before it premieres

Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

Premieres in 2026

Features an explicitly transgender character

Fred and George have the same actor

JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

Hermione is black

Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

Hermione is Indian

Yudkowsky makes an appearance

HPMOR is referenced

One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

Compatible with Switch 1 Joy-Cons (even if only Bluetooth)

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games

Backwards compatible with digital Switch 1 games

Crossplay with Switch 1 in any first-party game released within the first 6 months after launch

Multiple launch SKUs

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Mario" in the name

Name of the console contains the word "Switch"

The name of the console is correctly leaked over two weeks before it is revealed

Launch day system software includes a Mii maker

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "World" in the name

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) that also came out/is coming out for Switch 1

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games, AND allows you to play a better looking or performing version of at least one Switch 1 game with the original Switch 1 cartridge within 6 months of the console launching

Joy-Cons can be used as a mouse

A new pro controller will be released on the same day the console comes out

New SKU not available at launch available within one year after release

More than two themes before 2027

Any launch SKU has a MSRP not ending in "9.99" in the US

Name of the console contains the word "Super"

Name of the console contains the word "New"

Any launch SKU has an OLED screen

Over 180 days between reveal and release (July 15 deadline)

Revealed this week (before September 21st, 11:59:59pm ET)

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Zelda" in the name

Launch day system software includes an internet browser (general-purpose browser that deliberately allows access to the wider Web, like the 3DS or Wii U browser)

No launch SKU has 12GB RAM

No launch SKU has 256GB storage

Name of at least one launch SKU contains "XL"

The cheapest launch SKU costs ≤$300

Will have some kind of "achievements" or "trophies" system (under any name)

The Joy-Cons have inside-out tracking (via camera or LiDAR)

Has a social media or video-sharing service called Vidmiio (announced or available by launch)

First-party Joy-Cons attach or detach using electromagnets

Red Dead Redemption 2

Assassin's Creed Mirage

Assassin's Creed Shadows

Crimson Desert

Call of Duty: Black Ops 7

Halo: The Master Chief Collection

Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024

Grand Theft Auto IV

Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater

Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege

Grand Theft Auto VI

Grand Theft Auto V

YES

Kissing

Puts his hand on the small of a woman's back (does not have to be romantic/sexual touch)

Flirts with Moneypenny

Sex is implied but not shown (e.g. Kissing, then fading to black and then waking up in bed together)

Cuddling

Hugging

Kisses (or more) with multiple partners (not necessarily at once)

Committing a crime together

Romantic dinner

Holding hands

Missionary

Say or be told "I love you" (Any language)

Massage

Multiple partners (at once)

Oral

Spanking (receive or give)

Gay sex

Anal

Oral (giving)

Oral (receiving)

Pegging

Water

Salt

Potatoes

Soy protein

Black Pepper

Fruit Juice

Green Beans

Coffee

Rice

Onion

Tomatoes

Bacon

Yeast-Leavened Bread

Erythritol

Lima Beans

Yam

Ground Beef

Chicken

Lettuce

Desi Lydic

Hasan Minhaj

Ronny Chieng

No permanent host by 2030

Other

Jordan Klepper

Jon Stewart

Michael Kosta

Dulcé Sloan

Troy Iwata

Grace Kuhlenschmidt

Josh Johnson

Lewis Black

John Leguizamo

Leslie Jones

Roy Wood Jr.

Western aid shortage / economic collapse in Ukraine

Black swan geopolitical events 🦢

Trump wins US elections and forces Ukraine to cede territories

Decisive Russian military victory

Ukraine runs out of soldiers - further mobilization not feasible