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Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?
Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM
24.9%chance
153161899
OptionVotes
1673
632
AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?
Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM
18.68%chance
15870411
OptionVotes
1902
1495
UK gov accepts all 47 Fingleton nuclear review recommendations by Q1 2026?
Nov 29, 7:47 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM
17.47%chance
3236524
OptionVotes
15608
5150
OptionVotes
975
966
Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)
Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM
64.28%chance
12925312
OptionVotes
4316
3065
Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?
Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM
28.82%chance
5910001
OptionVotes
5814
4759
Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2030?
Mar 14, 9:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
3.95%chance
549062
OptionVotes
2160
902
What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?
Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
97980
OptionProbability
26
23
21
14
9
5
2
Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?
Apr 7, 2:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
6%chance
315805
OptionVotes
3000
734
When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?
Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
40%chance
444082
OptionVotes
1057
822
What will be the log change in bitcoin's market share among all currencies between 2023 and 2100? (M3000 subsidy)
May 22, 2:50 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
66.3%chance
72461
OptionProbability
4576
2499
OptionProbability
33
33
33
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