Allies News

US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026

US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

US military casualties (killed + wounded + other) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC).

Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

A biological, chemical, or radiological weapon (excluding nuclear bombs) is used by US forces or allies, Iranian forces, or their proxies by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.

Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026

US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026

US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026

US or Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear power plant causing a radioactive leak by June 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by IAEA, Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

(2026/04/05) In the Tour de Flanders, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/04/12) In the Paris-Roubaix, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Filippo Ganna?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?

(2026/01/22) After the 2nd stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?

(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?

(2026/01/24) After the 4th stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?

(2026/01/25) After the 5th stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?

(2026/01/17) After the 1st stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Noemi Ruegg outfinish Neve Bradbury?

(2026/01/18) After the 2nd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Noemi Ruegg outfinish Neve Bradbury?

(2026/01/19) After the 3rd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Noemi Ruegg outfinish Neve Bradbury?

(2026/01/17) After the 1st stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Mackenzie Coupland?

(2026/01/18) After the 2nd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Mackenzie Coupland?

(2026/01/19) After the 3rd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Mackenzie Coupland?

(2026/01/19) After the 3rd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Ally Wollaston?

(2026/01/19) After the 3rd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Noemi Ruegg outfinish Ally Wollaston?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Jay Vine outfinish Jhonatan Narváez?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Luke Plapp outfinish Ben O'Connor?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Aaron Gate outfinish Adam Yates?

(2026/01/21) After the 1st stage of Santos Down Under, will Jhonathan Narvaez outfinish Jensen Plowright?

(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Jhonathan Narvaez?

(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Mauro Schmid outfinish Harrison Sweeny?

(2026/01/25) After the 5th stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish all remaining cyclists?

(2026/01/25) After the 5th stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Mauro Schmid?

(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mattias Skjelmose?

(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Remco Evenepoel outfinish Mattias Skjelmose?

(2026/05/31) In the Giro d'Italia, will Jan Christen outfinish Martin Tjotta?

(2026/05/31) In the Giro d'Italia, will Felix Gall outfinish Afonso Eulalio?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jasper Philipsen?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu Van Der Poel?

(2026/07/05) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/06) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Tim Van Dijke outfinish Biniam Girmay?

(2026/07/04) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Juan Ayuso?

(2026/07/05) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Filippo Ganna?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Filippo Ganna?

(2026/07/09) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/10) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/11) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/12) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/14) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/15) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/16) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/17) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/18) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/19) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/07) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Remco Evenepoel?

(2026/07/08) In the Tour de France, will Torsteen Traeen outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/08) In the Tour de France, will Torsteen Traeen outfinish Tadej Pogacar?

(2026/07/11) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Isaac Del Toro?

(2026/08/22) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Wout Van Art outfinish Felix Gall?

(2026/08/22) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Wout Van Art outfinish Joao Almeida?

(2026/08/22) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Wout Van Art outfinish Sepp Kuss?

(2026/08/22) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Max Pedersen outfinish Felix Gall?

(2026/09/13) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Primoz Roglic outfinish Joao Almeida?

(2026/08/22) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Tadej Pogacar outfinish the field?

(2026/08/23) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Tadej Pogacar outfinish the field?

(2026/08/24) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Tadej Pogacar outfinish the field?

(2026/08/25) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Tadej Pogacar outfinish the field?

(2026/08/26) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Tadej Pogacar outfinish the field?

(2026/08/27) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Tadej Pogacar outfinish the field?

(2026/08/23) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Tadej Pogacar outfinish Ethan Hayter?

(2026/08/30) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Primoz Roglic outfinish Felix Gall?

(2026/09/13) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Felix Gall outfinish Richard Carapaz

(2026/07/21) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/04) In the Tour de France, will Isaac del Toro outfinish Oscar Onley?

(2026/07/23) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/22) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/25) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Paul Sexias outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Paul Sexias outfinish Primoz Roglic?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Filippo Ganna outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Filippo Ganna outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Mattieu Van Der Poel outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/24) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Mathias Skjelmose outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Juan Ayuso outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Jasper Philipsen outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Jasper Philipsen outfinish Jonathan Milan?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Mattias Skjelmose outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/09/13) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Tadej Pogacar outfinish the field?

(2026/10/10) In the Il Lombardia, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Adam Yates outfinish Jhonatan Narváez?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Filippo Ganna outfinish Guilio Ciccone?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Primoz Roglic outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/08/22) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Primov Roglic outfinish Max Poole?

(2026/10/10) In the Il Lombardia, will Filippo Ganna outfinish Remco Evenepoel?

(2026/10/10) In the Il Lombardia, will Remco Evenepoel outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/10/10) In the Il Lombardia, will Filippo Ganna outfinish Paul Sexias?

(2026/10/10) In the Il Lombardia, will Paul Sexias outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/10/10) In the Il Lombardia, will Filippo Ganna outfinish Guilio Pellizzari?

(2026/10/10) In the Il Lombardia, will Remco Evenepoel outfinish Guilio Pellizzari?

(2026/09/27) In the World Championship in Montreal, will Remco Evenepoel outfinish Isaac del Toro?

(2026/09/27) In the World Championship in Montreal, will Remco Evenepoel outfinish Paul Sexias?

(2026/09/27) In the World Championship in Montreal, will Paul Sexias outfinish Isaac del Toro?

(2026/09/27) In the World Championship in Montreal, will Remco Evenepoel outfinish Tom Pidcock?

(2026/09/27) In the World Championship in Montreal, will Tom Pidcock outfinish Isaac del Toro?

(2026/08/22) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Tom Pidcock outfinish Joao Almeida?

(2026/09/13) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Max Pedersen outfinish Felix Gall?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Torsteen Traeen outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/10/10) In the Il Lombardia, will Filippo Ganna outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/09/13) In the Vuelta a Espana, will Isaac Del Toro outfinish Tadej Pogacar?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Florian Lipowitz outfinish Remco Evenepoel?

(2026/01/21) After the 1st stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?

(2026/01/18) After the 2nd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Ally Wollaston?

(2026/01/18) After the 2nd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Mackenzie Coupland outfinish Ally Wollaston?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Adam Yates outfinish Ben O'Connor?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Corbin Strong outfinish Ben O'Connor?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Corbin Strong outfinish Adam Yates?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Nicolas Prodhomme outfinish Adam Yates?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Corbin Strong outfinish Andrea Bagioli?

(2026/01/21) After the 1st stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Samuel Watson?

(2026/01/21) After the 1st stage of Santos Down Under, will Jhonathan Narvaez outfinish Matthew Brennan?

(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Mauro Schmid outfinish Jhonathan Narvaez?

(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Marco Brenner outfinish Harrison Sweeny?

(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Jasper Philipsen outfinish Wout Van Aert?

(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Mads Pedersen outfinish Wout Van Aert?

(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Jasper Philipsen outfinish Mads Pedersen?

(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Jasper Philipsen outfinish Filippo Ganna?

(2026/04/05) In the Tour de Flanders, will Wout van Aert outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Mattias Skjelmose outfinish Pello Bilbao?

(2026/05/31) In the Giro d'Italia, will Guillermo Thomas Silva outfinish Egan Bernal?

(2026/05/30) In the Giro d'Italia, will Guillermo Thomas Silva outfinish Egan Bernal?

(2026/05/31) In the Giro d'Italia, will Jan Christen outfinish Egan Bernal?

(2026/07/04) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/04) In the Tour de France, will Paul Sexias outfinish Florian Lipowitz?

(2026/06/07) In the Giro d'Italia Women, will Elisa Balsamo outfinish Lara Gillespie?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Mattieu Van Der Poel outfinish Juan Ayuso?

(2026/07/05) In the Tour de France, will Filippo Ganna outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/05) In the Tour de France, will Juan Ayusa outfinish Remco Evenepoel?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Juan Ayusa outfinish Remco Evenepoel?

(2026/07/07) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/08) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/05) In the Tour de France, will Florian Lipowitz outfinish Remco Evenepoel?

(2026/07/06) In the Tour de France, will Florian Lipowitz outfinish Remco Evenepoel?

(2026/07/25) In the Tour de France, will Florian Lipowitz outfinish Remco Evenepoel?

(2026/07/06) In the Tour de France, will Isaac Del Toro outfinish Tadej Pogacar?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Isaac Del Toro outfinish Tadej Pogacar?

(2026/07/06) In the Tour de France, will Mathias Skjelmose outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/07) In the Tour de France, will Remco Evenepoel outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Paul Sexias outfinish Richard Carapaz?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Torsteen Traeen outfinish Tadej Pogacar?

(2026/07/11) In the Tour de France, will Isaac Del Toro outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/09/13) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Wout Van Art outfinish Felix Gall?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Isaac Del Toro outfinish Remco Evenepoel?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Paul Sexias outfinish Isaac Del Toro?

(2026/08/22) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Felix Gall outfinish Joao Almeida?

(2026/08/22) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Primoz Roglic outfinish Joao Almeida?

(2026/08/22) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Felix Gall outfinish Enric Mas?

(2026/09/13) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Felix Gall outfinish Enric Mas?

(2026/08/22) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Pello Bilbao outfinish Oscar Onley?

(2026/09/13) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Pello Bilbao outfinish Oscar Onley?

(2026/08/23) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Joshua Tarling outfinish Ethan Hayter?

(2026/08/25) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Wout Van Art outfinish James Brennan?

(2026/08/30) In the La Vuelta de Espana, will Primoz Roglic outfinish Enric Mas?

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY

<10sqkm of Greenlandic territory controlled by US by EOY

Resolves 50% if the US owns <10sqkm of Greenland by EOY, otherwise, resolves to 5x the number of traders on this option.

Imposition of tariffs on any country that opposes

Trump will say that he took control over Greenland, but Denmark will say no. As usual, Fox News will give airtime only to Trump’s speech.

Diplomatic deal (e.g. purchase)

Long term (30+ year) lease

This option resolves YES if a nuclear bomb is dropped on Copenhagen by EOY. Resolves to 1/10,000,000,000 the purchase price if Greenland is purchased. Otherwise, resolves to a percent 1-10 as generated by @FairlyRandom

U.S. is the de facto authority, even if they don't technically own the land

Russia will court Greenland to give an excuse to Trump to bring military forces

By fabricating a scenario about a pathogen released from thawing ice

Taken by force

The odds on Kalshi get so low that Trump sees an opportunity. He orders the military into Greenland, conquers it, and wins a shitload of money.

Trump promises each Greenlander X$, so they have a vote to secede from Denmark and join the US. Vote is successful

Trump will offer another country the opportunity to occupy Greenland first, and then “liberate” it with NATO allies

Frederik X, King of Denmark is abducted by the US and abdicates the throne, ceding all rights and titles to Donald Trump

Trying to invade with lots of troops but without a clear solution other than claiming to lead the government.

U.S. takes Denmark, therefore also takes Greenland

Putin will take it for Russia and sell it to Donald J Trump

U.S. citizens will vote to join Denmark, making the United States part of Danish territory and administratively linked to Greenland

Washington DC is physically severed from the Virgina border, so it's an island. Washington and Nuuk are simultaneously airlifted and switch places physically. Somehow this causes the US to be sovereign over Greenland and vice versa.

Tucker Carlson

Jason Calacanis

Theo Von

Dave Portnoy

Joe Rogan

Chamath Palihapitiya

Tulsi Gabbard

David Sacks

Laura Loomer

Tim Pool

Elon Musk

Vivek Ramaswamy

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Susie Wiles

Alex Jones

Ben Shapiro

Karoline Leavitt

Pam Bondi

Linda McMahon

Marco Rubio

2026-09-30

2026-03-06

2026-03-15

2026-03-31

YES

Eritrean Defense Forces and Tigray Defense Force will win the Fight.

Ethiopian Defense Force will win the Fight

Political collapse or revolution in Moscow

Multiple foreign countries directly join the war against Russia

Putin dies of natural causes

Ukraine regains control of occupied territories

Ukrainian AF privatization/decentralization (widescale use of PMCs)

Decisive military counteroffensive

Russia enters recession

YES

Of great material importance to her, but she's beneath his notice

An enemy

An ally, but not a friend

A mere resource for her

He inspires or provides information to her, but they don't otherwise materially interact

They have some hidden existing relationship, which is revealed by Aulia's beliefs, but there is no other cosmically ordained aspect

Something magical between them, like his relationship with Gorgon

Something mundane (like one of them is called to serve on a jury at the other's trial)

A friend

She inspires or provides information to him, but they don't otherwise materially interact

Actually no cosmic relationship

They are destined to interact by accident, but their emotional relationship with each other is

NO

YES