Allies News

US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026

US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC).

Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.

Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

A biological, chemical, or radiological weapon (excluding nuclear bombs) is used by US forces or allies, Iranian forces, or their proxies by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026

The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026

US military casualties exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.

More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026

US or Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear power plant causing a radioactive leak by June 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by IAEA, Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026

US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

call someone retarded through text or speech

Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

A literal red line on the ground/floor

complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela

Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.

repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Stays alive

Causes Tina Peters' early release

pass 500 or more executive orders

intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

new blockade of a country

Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

put his name on a ship in the navy

request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

Says 6 7 (or variant)

sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

File lawsuit against a congressperson

resume buying oil from Russia

Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

Dep

call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

Revoke ten or more citizenships

Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes

sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

ten or more protestors killed during term

Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools

postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state

Raise the retirement age for social security

closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

Nominate a family member to high office

Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS

have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

Call for the end of the Senate

Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

add a new federal holiday in his honor

have a journalist arrested

Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

Pardon a convicted pedophile

Pardon himself

repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

host putin at mar a lago

Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

Salute Putin

Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

Raise contribution limits (FEC)

federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

department of defense renamed to Dept of war

Get rid of Noaa.

Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

force a former president to testify before Congress

Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)

stops all sanctions on Russia

enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)

Withdraw from NATO

Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Implement a federal age of consent

Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump

Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

repeal Obamacare

pardon derek chauvin

classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

Add a citizenship question to the census

confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

debank a congressperson governor or mayor

Enact price controls on groceries

Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

actually disinter bodies from another country

Call for the end of child marriage

Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

orders arrests of any Biden family member

delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

Prosecute someone for flag burning

His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

Announce he’s running for a third term

Pardon ghislaine maxwell

cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

all time high unemployment reached

Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

Replace his Vice President

Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

Causes derek chauvin's early release

declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

Attack a NATO ally.

Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

expand the borders of the usa

remove tax exempt from only certain religions

have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

threaten to disinter bodies from another country

Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

fauci in jail at least one week

take control of a part of ukraine

add a new state

pardon george santos

take state ownership in an airline

Postpone the elections due to emergency

Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

ban trans people from holding federal offices

changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

Annex any part of Mexico

ends black history month

Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

take control of a part of greenland

ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

Call for the end of gay marriage

Fully or partially privatize Social Security

Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

Pardon p diddy

Implement a federal abortion ban

make statements that are negative about labubu

Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

fully nationalize an airline

stop California from hosting the Olympics

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

change the borders of a state

breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

repeal an amendment

declares a white history month

Call for the end of the House of Reps

give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

Call for the end of interracial marriage

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

bans anime

Wearing a white dress after labor day

Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace

bans 6 7

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY

<10sqkm of Greenlandic territory controlled by US by EOY

Resolves 50% if the US owns <10sqkm of Greenland by EOY, otherwise, resolves to 5x the number of traders on this option.

Imposition of tariffs on any country that opposes

Long term (30+ year) lease

Diplomatic deal (e.g. purchase)

Trump will say that he took control over Greenland, but Denmark will say no. As usual, Fox News will give airtime only to Trump’s speech.

This option resolves YES if a nuclear bomb is dropped on Copenhagen by EOY. Resolves to 1/10,000,000,000 the purchase price if Greenland is purchased. Otherwise, resolves to a percent 1-10 as generated by @FairlyRandom

U.S. is the de facto authority, even if they don't technically own the land

Russia will court Greenland to give an excuse to Trump to bring military forces

By fabricating a scenario about a pathogen released from thawing ice

Taken by force

The odds on Kalshi get so low that Trump sees an opportunity. He orders the military into Greenland, conquers it, and wins a shitload of money.

Trump promises each Greenlander X$, so they have a vote to secede from Denmark and join the US. Vote is successful

Trump will offer another country the opportunity to occupy Greenland first, and then “liberate” it with NATO allies

Frederik X, King of Denmark is abducted by the US and abdicates the throne, ceding all rights and titles to Donald Trump

Trying to invade with lots of troops but without a clear solution other than claiming to lead the government.

U.S. takes Denmark, therefore also takes Greenland

Putin will take it for Russia and sell it to Donald J Trump

U.S. citizens will vote to join Denmark, making the United States part of Danish territory and administratively linked to Greenland

Washington DC is physically severed from the Virgina border, so it's an island. Washington and Nuuk are simultaneously airlifted and switch places physically. Somehow this causes the US to be sovereign over Greenland and vice versa.

(2026/04/05) In the Tour de Flanders, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/04/12) In the Paris-Roubaix, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Filippo Ganna?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?

(2026/01/22) After the 2nd stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?

(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?

(2026/01/24) After the 4th stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?

(2026/01/25) After the 5th stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?

(2026/01/17) After the 1st stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Noemi Ruegg outfinish Neve Bradbury?

(2026/01/18) After the 2nd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Noemi Ruegg outfinish Neve Bradbury?

(2026/01/19) After the 3rd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Noemi Ruegg outfinish Neve Bradbury?

(2026/01/17) After the 1st stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Mackenzie Coupland?

(2026/01/18) After the 2nd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Mackenzie Coupland?

(2026/01/19) After the 3rd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Mackenzie Coupland?

(2026/01/19) After the 3rd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Ally Wollaston?

(2026/01/19) After the 3rd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Noemi Ruegg outfinish Ally Wollaston?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Jay Vine outfinish Jhonatan Narváez?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Luke Plapp outfinish Ben O'Connor?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Aaron Gate outfinish Adam Yates?

(2026/01/21) After the 1st stage of Santos Down Under, will Jhonathan Narvaez outfinish Jensen Plowright?

(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Jhonathan Narvaez?

(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Mauro Schmid outfinish Harrison Sweeny?

(2026/01/25) After the 5th stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish all remaining cyclists?

(2026/01/25) After the 5th stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Mauro Schmid?

(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mattias Skjelmose?

(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Remco Evenepoel outfinish Mattias Skjelmose?

(2026/05/31) In the Giro d'Italia, will Jan Christen outfinish Martin Tjotta?

(2026/05/31) In the Giro d'Italia, will Felix Gall outfinish Afonso Eulalio?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jasper Philipsen?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu Van Der Poel?

(2026/10/10) In the Il Lombardia, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/04) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/05) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/06) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Mattias Skjelmose outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/07/04) In the Tour de France, will Isaac del Toro outfinish Oscar Onley?

(2026/07/04) In the Tour de France, will Paul Sexias outfinish Florian Lipowitz?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Adam Yates outfinish Jhonatan Narváez?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Mattieu Van Der Poel outfinish Juan Ayuso?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Jasper Philipsen outfinish Jonathan Milan?

(2026/10/10) In the Il Lombardia, will Filippo Ganna outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Juan Ayuso outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Jasper Philipsen outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/07/26) In the Tour de France, will Mattieu Van Der Poel outfinish Jonas Vingegaard?

(2026/01/21) After the 1st stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?

(2026/01/18) After the 2nd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Ally Wollaston?

(2026/01/18) After the 2nd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Mackenzie Coupland outfinish Ally Wollaston?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Adam Yates outfinish Ben O'Connor?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Corbin Strong outfinish Ben O'Connor?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Corbin Strong outfinish Adam Yates?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Nicolas Prodhomme outfinish Adam Yates?

(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Corbin Strong outfinish Andrea Bagioli?

(2026/01/21) After the 1st stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Samuel Watson?

(2026/01/21) After the 1st stage of Santos Down Under, will Jhonathan Narvaez outfinish Matthew Brennan?

(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Mauro Schmid outfinish Jhonathan Narvaez?

(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Marco Brenner outfinish Harrison Sweeny?

(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Jasper Philipsen outfinish Wout Van Aert?

(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Mads Pedersen outfinish Wout Van Aert?

(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Jasper Philipsen outfinish Mads Pedersen?

(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Jasper Philipsen outfinish Filippo Ganna?

(2026/04/05) In the Tour de Flanders, will Wout van Aert outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?

(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Mattias Skjelmose outfinish Pello Bilbao?

(2026/05/31) In the Giro d'Italia, will Guillermo Thomas Silva outfinish Egan Bernal?

(2026/05/30) In the Giro d'Italia, will Guillermo Thomas Silva outfinish Egan Bernal?

(2026/05/31) In the Giro d'Italia, will Jan Christen outfinish Egan Bernal?

Joe Rogan

Tucker Carlson

Jason Calacanis

Theo Von

Dave Portnoy

Pam Bondi

Tulsi Gabbard

Laura Loomer

Chamath Palihapitiya

Tim Pool

Elon Musk

David Sacks

Alex Jones

Vivek Ramaswamy

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Ben Shapiro

Marco Rubio

Susie Wiles

Karoline Leavitt

Linda McMahon

Susan Collins (Senate - ME): Voted to convict Trump in 2021.

David Valadao (House - CA): The only House Republican who voted to impeach Trump who is running for re-election in 2026.

Field (Any other Targeted Incumbent not listed): If a major new target emerges add them as a standalone option.

No Targeted Incumbent will survive (Trump Sweep)

John Cornyn (Senate - TX): With McConnell retiring, Cornyn is the new face of the "Establishment". Trump allies (like Texas AG Ken Paxton) have actively floated primary challenges against him.

Bill Cassidy (Senate - LA): Voted to convict Trump in 2021 and was immediately censured by his state party. He is running for re-election and will face a massive Trump-backed primary challenge.

2026-09-30

2026-03-06

2026-03-15

2026-03-31

YES

Eritrean Defense Forces and Tigray Defense Force will win the Fight.

Ethiopian Defense Force will win the Fight

Political collapse or revolution in Moscow

Multiple foreign countries directly join the war against Russia

Putin dies of natural causes

Ukraine regains control of occupied territories

Ukrainian AF privatization/decentralization (widescale use of PMCs)

Decisive military counteroffensive

Russia enters recession

YES

YES