Allies News

US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026

US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

US military casualties (killed + wounded + other) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC).

Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.

A biological, chemical, or radiological weapon (excluding nuclear bombs) is used by US forces or allies, Iranian forces, or their proxies by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026

Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026

US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026

US or Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear power plant causing a radioactive leak by June 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by IAEA, Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY

Resolves 50% if the US owns <10sqkm of Greenland by EOY, otherwise, resolves to 5x the number of traders on this option.

Imposition of tariffs on any country that opposes

Trump will say that he took control over Greenland, but Denmark will say no. As usual, Fox News will give airtime only to Trump’s speech.

Russia will court Greenland to give an excuse to Trump to bring military forces

Diplomatic deal (e.g. purchase)

<10sqkm of Greenlandic territory controlled by US by EOY

Long term (30+ year) lease

This option resolves YES if a nuclear bomb is dropped on Copenhagen by EOY. Resolves to 1/10,000,000,000 the purchase price if Greenland is purchased. Otherwise, resolves to a percent 1-10 as generated by @FairlyRandom

U.S. is the de facto authority, even if they don't technically own the land

By fabricating a scenario about a pathogen released from thawing ice

Taken by force

The odds on Kalshi get so low that Trump sees an opportunity. He orders the military into Greenland, conquers it, and wins a shitload of money.

Trump promises each Greenlander X$, so they have a vote to secede from Denmark and join the US. Vote is successful

Trump will offer another country the opportunity to occupy Greenland first, and then “liberate” it with NATO allies

Frederik X, King of Denmark is abducted by the US and abdicates the throne, ceding all rights and titles to Donald Trump

Trying to invade with lots of troops but without a clear solution other than claiming to lead the government.

U.S. takes Denmark, therefore also takes Greenland

Putin will take it for Russia and sell it to Donald J Trump

U.S. citizens will vote to join Denmark, making the United States part of Danish territory and administratively linked to Greenland

Washington DC is physically severed from the Virgina border, so it's an island. Washington and Nuuk are simultaneously airlifted and switch places physically. Somehow this causes the US to be sovereign over Greenland and vice versa.

Heavy Tariffs

Attempted prosecution of the "enemy within"/political opponents

Ending taxes on tips

Large-scale deportations of immigrants

Substantial Increase in Oil Permitting

Repeal or substantially curtail the Inflation Reduction Act

Require and preside over increase in defense spending from allies

Increased Aid for Israel

Cut federal funding to schools that teach "critical race theory" and "transgender" matters

Expanding the child tax credit to $5000

Large Tax Cuts

Dismantling the Environmental Protection Agency

Reduce independence of the Fed

Ending taxes on Social Security income

Ending taxes on foreign earned income

YES

Eritrean Defense Forces and Tigray Defense Force will win the Fight.

Ethiopian Defense Force will win the Fight

Taiwan's ally count falls to 11

China destroys a Taiwanese boat with gunfire or explosives (not a water cannon)

Taiwan's ally count falls to 10

China declares a blockade of boats entering Taiwan (any number)

China shoots down a Taiwanese plane

If China attacks, they fight US forces within 21 days

China launches a missile that hits Taiwan (the island)

If China attacks, they fight US forces within 14 days

China controls Wuqiu

Taiwan's ally count falls to 9

Taiwan's ally count falls to 8

If China attacks, they fight US forces within 7 days

100+ people are killed in the conflict

China lands troops on Taiwan (the island)

China controls Kinmen

China controls Matsu

China controls Penghu

1k+ people are killed in the conflict

10k+ people are killed in the conflict

100k+ people are killed in the conflict

Political collapse or revolution in Moscow

Multiple foreign countries directly join the war against Russia

Putin dies of natural causes

Ukraine regains control of occupied territories

Ukrainian AF privatization/decentralization (widescale use of PMCs)

Decisive military counteroffensive

Russia enters recession

YES

Of great material importance to her, but she's beneath his notice

An enemy

An ally, but not a friend

A mere resource for her

He inspires or provides information to her, but they don't otherwise materially interact

They have some hidden existing relationship, which is revealed by Aulia's beliefs, but there is no other cosmically ordained aspect

Something magical between them, like his relationship with Gorgon

Something mundane (like one of them is called to serve on a jury at the other's trial)

A friend

She inspires or provides information to him, but they don't otherwise materially interact

Actually no cosmic relationship

They are destined to interact by accident, but their emotional relationship with each other is

NO

YES

Lead author of the series is a man

There are threats in the universe that can destroy the planet/realm the main character lives on that they have to fight against

Has at least 6 animated episodes of an accompanying anime or OVA

published in Shonen Jump

Some sort of magic is used

Cute animal sidekick to the main character or their allies

Guns exist in the universe

'power of friendship' trope

'enemies to Lovers' trope

One of the top 2 main characters has green hair

'Time Travel' trope or a part of the key storyline

Set in the future

Psychic powers are used by an enemy or antihero character

Cloning technology exists in the universe

Has had a related skin in fortnite