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Prediction markets for Alpha

Will the Flexport internal prediction market on freight rates have alpha (as per their CEO)?

Dec 30, 9:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

77.76%chance

391199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

930

Will an interstellar mission to alpha centauri be launched before 2040?

Feb 25, 9:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.99%chance

171053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1701

884

What model is Horizon Alpha on Openrouter?

Jul 31, 2:19 AMJan 1, 3:14 AM

17797

OptionProbability

A version of GPT-5

Other

A version of OpenAI's open source model

73

17

10

Nick Adams (Alpha Male) confirmed as ambassador to Malaysia this year?

Jul 10, 3:51 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.2%chance

10780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

957

Which lab is Horizon Alpha from?

Jul 31, 3:04 AMJan 1, 4:03 AM

9732

OptionProbability

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

Google

Other

95

2

1

1

1

Is Horizon Alpha GPT-5-nano?

Jul 31, 8:41 PMAug 13, 8:41 PM

71.18%chance

11453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

64

Will an interstellar mission to Alpha Centauri be launched by 2100?

Sep 8, 3:56 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

63.32%chance

13367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

577

Is the mysterious coding model on the LM Arena, o3-alpha, the upcoming open-source OpenAI model?

Jul 18, 9:35 PMAug 17, 9:33 PM

19.29%chance

9159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

205

49

If/when humans send a mission to Alpha Centauri, will the subjective time experienced by the craft be more than 20 years?

Nov 11, 4:03 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

63.1%chance

9126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

270

163

Will the generation after generation alpha also be defined by a technological rather than political/cultural change?

Jan 30, 4:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.94%chance

1077

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

170

How many distinct celestial bodies will be known in Alpha Centauri system in 2030?

May 2, 11:22 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

475

Will Elon Musk livestream himself playing Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri with OTHER real people by EOY2030?

Dec 29, 4:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.17%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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