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Prediction markets for Alternative for Germany

Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?

Jan 22, 4:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12%chance

2423827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12196

9630

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

57.71%chance

8118684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

893

Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) be part of the German government by 2026?

Jul 14, 9:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

4116724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8167

733

Is Elon a Nazi sympathizer?

Feb 10, 9:50 AMDec 26, 7:59 AM

15%chance

489856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?

Sep 3, 8:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15%chance

242275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

459

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

Jun 9, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

35.8%chance

282254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1339

747

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.67%chance

171570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6171

4649

Will AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?

Feb 27, 10:06 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

63.7%chance

231541

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

75

Will Elon Musk publicly donate more than €100k euros to the German AfD party before the end of 2025?

Jan 3, 2:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.07%chance

111348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

39

[Metaculus] Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negot... for Germany before 2030?

Mar 3, 3:42 AMJan 1, 11:00 PM

33%chance

141139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

249

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

Mar 6, 11:53 AMMar 25, 9:59 PM

40%chance

131024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

India touches 5 trillion dollar GDP in 2027?

Jul 1, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.49%chance

223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

91

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