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Prediction markets for and Innovation
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.46%chance
10619842
OptionVotes
1771
1288
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
50%chance
242155
OptionVotes
998
997
Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?
Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM
73.84%chance
151472
OptionVotes
1936
988
Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?
Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM
86.78%chance
221450
OptionVotes
2411
1180
Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?
Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM
28.12%chance
121007
OptionVotes
1703
1017
Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?
Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM
60.73%chance
18676
OptionVotes
1740
1045
🌐Which social platforms will reach 500M or more users by the end of 2030? [ADD RESPONSES]
Mar 16, 12:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
8609
OptionProbability
74
59
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
46
46
38
26
20
5
1
Will I win any prize in FWI's Innovation Challenge by October 17, 2025
Jun 12, 5:37 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM
35.43%chance
1350
OptionVotes
1350
741
How far will the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act go?
Aug 22, 1:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
4160
OptionProbability
27
11
11
10
10
10
10
8
4
OptionProbability
86
78
77
70
60
50
50
50
43
8
Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]
Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
51%chance
759
OptionVotes
156
143
Will the Responsible Innovation and Safe Expertise (RISE) Act of 2025 become law in the United States before 1 Jan 2027?
Jun 12, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.17%chance
230
OptionVotes
130
77
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