ANSES News

ANSES Confirms September 2025 Payment Schedule Including 300,000 Pesos Deposit and Widow's Pension Termination

10 months ago

ANSES Announces AUH Bonuses Up to 750,000 Pesos, 320,000 Pesos August Bonus, Pension Increases, and Paper Check Phase-Out

10 months ago

ANSES to Pay 400,000 Pesos Bonus, Raise Average Pension to 1,507 Euros as August Spending Hits 13.6 Billion Euros

Argentina

Economics

Business

ANSES to Pay 400,000 Pesos Bonus, Raise Average Pension to 1,507 Euros as August Spending Hits 13.6 Billion Euros

10 months ago

Elbaf Megathread (Answers will resolve as they occur)

Aug 19, 2:49 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM

276129258

OptionProbability

Loki face reveal

Shanks backstory with Garling involved

Imu face reveal

Other holy knights beside Garling face reveal (at least one)

Usopp powerup (haki or new weapon)

Man marked by flames is revealed

Luffy finds out that the Bartolomeo Pirates were destroyed by Shanks's crew

Dragon finally makes a move

Vivi rejoins the crew

Cross guild arrives on Elbaf

Big Mom returns (must be present in-person)

Kidd washes up on the shore and is seen in the arc

Shanks's crew do a davy back fight with the strawhats

100

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.7%chance

12754758

OptionVotes

YES

1667

1129

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

35.86%chance

8033375

OptionVotes

YES

1405

569

OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?

Feb 11, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.44%chance

13613445

OptionVotes

YES

1512

662

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

88.8%chance

438013

OptionVotes

YES

1460

886

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Oct 27, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.12%chance

151633

OptionVotes

YES

1045

982

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Jul 3, 5:50 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM

65.99%chance

261249

OptionVotes

YES

973

937

Will China acquire Taiwan through the equivalent of Anschluss?

Jan 2, 2:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.67%chance

15870

OptionVotes

YES

1298

765

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

Dec 10, 8:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.63%chance

13657

OptionVotes

YES

1265

856

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?

Feb 3, 4:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.27%chance

11293

OptionVotes

YES

1206

937

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

YES

1008

988

SIGN HERE TO JOIN THE BREAD ARMY [ADD ANSWERS IF YOU WANT TO]

Jun 8, 9:13 AMDec 31, 9:26 AM

OptionProbability

IM SIGNING HERE 🫡

Im signing here 🫡

BREAD ARMY FOREVER 🫡

COUNT ME IN 🥖🫡

Latest stories

Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Argentina
Economics
Business
ANSES to Pay 400,000 Pesos Bonus, Raise Average Pension to 1,507 Euros as August Spending Hits 13.6 Billion Euros
Authors
8
10 months ago
Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Argentina
Economics
Business
ANSES Confirms September 2025 Payment Schedule Including 300,000 Pesos Deposit and Widow's Pension Termination
Authors
5
10 months ago
Aug 13, 2025
Aug 13, 2025
Argentina
Economics
Business
ANSES Announces AUH Bonuses Up to 750,000 Pesos, 320,000 Pesos August Bonus, Pension Increases, and Paper Check Phase-Out
Authors
5
10 months ago

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Elbaf Megathread (Answers will resolve as they occur)

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Will China acquire Taiwan through the equivalent of Anschluss?

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

SIGN HERE TO JOIN THE BREAD ARMY [ADD ANSWERS IF YOU WANT TO]

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