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Top stories

Madrona Unveils 2025 IA40, Spotlighting 40 Rising AI Startups

Madrona Unveils 2025 IA40, Spotlighting 40 Rising AI Startups

Authors

8

10 months ago

Anthropic Debuts Claude for Chrome as Report Warns of AI-Driven Extortion

Anthropic Debuts Claude for Chrome as Report Warns of AI-Driven Extortion

Authors

69

10 months ago

Anthropic to Use User Chats for AI Training, Extend Data Retention to 5 Years Across Free, Pro, and Max Tiers Unless Opted Out by September 28

Anthropic to Use User Chats for AI Training, Extend Data Retention to 5 Years Across Free, Pro, and Max Tiers Unless Opted Out by September 28

Authors

13

10 months ago

OpenAI and Anthropic Join Forces on AI Safety Testing

Authors

5

10 months ago

Anthropic Settles Authors’ Suit Alleging Pirated Books Fueled Claude AI

Authors

49

10 months ago

Google Tests Agent and Immersive Modes to Broaden Gemini AI

Authors

18

10 months ago

Experts Warn ‘AI Psychosis’ Risk as Teens Turn to Chatbot Therapy

Authors

15

10 months ago

Anthropic and U.S. DOE’s NNSA Develop Classifier With 96% Accuracy to Filter CBRN Weapons, Achieving 33% Harmful Content Reduction

Authors

8

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Anthropic

Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?

Dec 20, 2:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

281377955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

887

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

Feb 24, 8:03 PMJul 1, 9:20 PM

596366675

OptionProbability

The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic

The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"

Anthropic files a lawsuit against the federal government

A judge grants an injunction against the Department of War

An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation

OpenAI signs a contract substantially weaker than Anthropic's requirements

The Department of War signs a deal to use OpenAI models instead

Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before 2027

The supply chain risk designation is officially issued

An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation And survives unblocked by other courts for 6 months

Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before July

The government offers the same terms to Anthropic as to OpenAI

Resignation letter signed by at least 5 OpenAI employees

Anthropic's contract is publicly available

US company with >100B total valuation cancels some Pentagon contract and uses Anthropic supply chain risk designation as stated justification

OpenAI's new contract is publicly available

The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act

Dario Amodei leaves or is removed from Anthropic

Anthropic gives the government unfettered access of their own accord (they "cave in")

The Pentagon designates Anthropic a supply chain risk, AND invokes the Defense Production Act

Autonomous weapon + surveillance Claude safeguards are removed for the Pentagon

Resignation letter signed by at least 5 Anthropic researchers

Will Amazon have to divest / break with Anthropic in 2026?

Anthropic stops advancing AI capabilities

The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes (autonomous weapon + mass surveillance of americans)

The Pentagon and Anthropic come to some form of mutual settlement by the Friday deadline

100

100

100

100

100

84

81

69

68

67

58

25

16

12

10

8

7

7

6

5

4

3

3

2

0

0

When will Anthropic IPO?

Jul 29, 5:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

127289361

OptionProbability

2026 Q4

2026 Q3

2027 Q1

2027 Q2

2029 or later or not at all

2026 Q2

2027 Q3

2027 Q4

2028

2025 Q3

2025 Q4

2026 Q1

51

24

17

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

83181248

OptionProbability

Other

$210-220B

$220-230B

$230-240B

$240-250B

$250-260B

$270-280B

$170-180B

$180-190B

$190-200B

$200-210B

$260-270B

$280-290B

$290-300B

$150-160B

$160-170B

$130-140B

$140-150B

<$40B

$60-70B

$70-80B

$80-90B

$90-100B

$100-110B

$110-120B

$120-130B

$40-50B

$50-60B

24

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?

Feb 17, 4:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.39%chance

243151365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1905

525

Will Anthropic become profitable this year?

May 6, 7:39 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

91.66%chance

14756875

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6423

484

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69%chance

11739485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15373

6183

Anthropic above 10T valuation on June 14 2027

Jun 14, 7:48 AMJun 14, 11:59 PM

13.36%chance

2937008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2407

557

Will Anthropic Annual Recurring Revenue be under $90bn end of 2026?

Apr 7, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

6619755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3945

1136

Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?

May 17, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.86%chance

7514615

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6051

5902

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Feb 4, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.64%chance

354321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2290

1775

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than SpaceX after both IPO?

Apr 20, 9:30 PMApr 20, 9:29 PM

31.64%chance

213928

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2318

1737

Latest stories

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Aug 28, 2025
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5
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AI Modeling
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49
10 months ago
Aug 26, 2025
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Experts Warn ‘AI Psychosis’ Risk as Teens Turn to Chatbot Therapy
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15
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Aug 25, 2025
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Anthropic and U.S. DOE’s NNSA Develop Classifier With 96% Accuracy to Filter CBRN Weapons, Achieving 33% Harmful Content Reduction
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8
10 months ago
Aug 23, 2025
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AI Products
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12
10 months ago
Aug 22, 2025
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Software
AI Modeling
AI Products
Apple Discusses Using Google Gemini to Overhaul Siri
Authors
70
10 months ago
Aug 22, 2025
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AI Modeling
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Anthropic and U.S. DOE’s NNSA Develop Classifier with 96% Accuracy to Filter CBRN Weapons Info and Prevent Chatbot Nuclear Weapon Instructions
Authors
3
10 months ago
Aug 22, 2025
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AI Modeling
AI
Salesforce Benchmark Finds GPT-5 Solves Only 44% of Real Tasks
Authors
10
10 months ago
Aug 21, 2025
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AI Fundraising
Business
Anthropic Nears $10 Billion Funding Round Led by Iconiq Capital
Authors
17
10 months ago
Aug 20, 2025
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Singapore
AI Modeling
AI Products
Chinese AI Startup Manus Hits $90 Million Run Rate in Singapore; NEO Autonomous ML Engineer Outperforms Microsoft
Authors
9
10 months ago
Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
US Domestic Policy
Education
Politics
Courts and Law Schools Tighten AI Guardrails After Fake Citations Spike
Authors
12
10 months ago
Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
AI Products
AI
Google Adds URL Context to Gemini API as Anthropic Unveils Cost Tracker
Authors
5
10 months ago
Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
AI Modeling
AI
Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks
Authors
4
10 months ago
Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
AI Modeling
AI Products
AI
Oracle Integrates OpenAI’s GPT-5 as Enterprise Demand Surges
Authors
67
10 months ago
Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
AI Products
AI
Anthropic Lets Claude AI Terminate Abusive Chats in Safety Push
Authors
16
10 months ago
Aug 15, 2025
Aug 15, 2025
Europe
Stocks
AI Modeling
New AI Models Batter European Software Stocks, Fuel Rush Into Nvidia
Authors
11
10 months ago

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