AP News

Texas Tops AP Preseason College Football Poll With 25 First-Place Votes; Penn State Second, Ohio State Third

1 year ago

Latin America

Venezuela

US Foreign Policy

US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift

1 year ago

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

42.71%chance

4801149999

OptionVotes

YES

10362

8973

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.37%chance

326670197

OptionVotes

YES

2774

2316

Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?

Dec 20, 2:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

329478701

OptionVotes

YES

1107

906

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42130742

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.51%chance

9858808

OptionVotes

YES

144853

69696

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.26%chance

7024069

OptionVotes

YES

14460

7017

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Aug 23, 6:50 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.69%chance

366957

OptionVotes

YES

15830

14208

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.6%chance

64322

OptionVotes

YES

13448

7436

Will an LLM find a counterexample to the Erdős conjecture on APs by July 2027?

Jul 20, 1:42 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8%chance

8724

OptionVotes

YES

1025

621

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

YES

10538

9489

Will Aaron Donald be awarded Pro Bowl honors or AP All-Pro honors for the 2026 NFL regular season?

Aug 31, 1:54 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

35.95%chance

7112

OptionVotes

YES

1015

973

Which AP Subject Test for May 2027 will have the most students get the lowest score on it?

Aug 8, 9:33 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

545

OptionProbability

Other

Physics 1

Computer Science A

US History

Physics 2

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Aug 29, 2025
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US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift
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1 year ago
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NCAA
Sports
Texas Tops AP Preseason College Football Poll With 25 First-Place Votes; Penn State Second, Ohio State Third
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24
1 year ago

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👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Will an LLM find a counterexample to the Erdős conjecture on APs by July 2027?

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Will Aaron Donald be awarded Pro Bowl honors or AP All-Pro honors for the 2026 NFL regular season?

Which AP Subject Test for May 2027 will have the most students get the lowest score on it?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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Telegram