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AFP, AP, BBC, Reuters Warn Gaza Journalists Face Starvation as Displaced Woman at Al-Shifa Hospital Highlights Crisis; UK Urged to Act

11 days ago

DC Circuit Lets Trump Maintain Ban on AP Oval Office Access

US Judiciary

US Domestic Policy

Politics

DC Circuit Lets Trump Maintain Ban on AP Oval Office Access

11 days ago

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

56.31%chance

440954278

OptionVotes

YES

12844

6434

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74%chance

293621168

OptionVotes

YES

2825

2569

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35121190

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

all other cuases

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

56.8%chance

5626924

OptionVotes

YES

114667

87209

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.31%chance

5717669

OptionVotes

YES

13461

7504

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.97%chance

5212270

OptionVotes

YES

19342

7418

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.33%chance

44262

OptionVotes

YES

13530

7391

Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?

Feb 14, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 7:59 AM

46.76%chance

202135

OptionVotes

YES

10868

9165

Which AP tests will I get a perfect score on, if any?

May 30, 4:50 PMDec 31, 5:47 PM

81212

OptionProbability

AP Physics 1

AP CS A

AP Calc BC

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

10313

9761

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

YES

10538

9489

Which AP Subject Test for May 2026 will have the most students get the lowest score on it?

Jul 6, 4:28 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

345

OptionProbability

Other

US History

Physics 1

Physics 2

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👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?

Which AP tests will I get a perfect score on, if any?

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Which AP Subject Test for May 2026 will have the most students get the lowest score on it?

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