AP News

Texas Tops AP Preseason College Football Poll With 25 First-Place Votes; Penn State Second, Ohio State Third

1 year ago

Latin America

Venezuela

US Foreign Policy

US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift

1 year ago

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.97%chance

4841156853

OptionVotes

YES

11805

7332

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.86%chance

328673400

OptionVotes

YES

2756

2354

Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?

Dec 20, 2:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.84%chance

340508726

OptionVotes

YES

1311

764

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42130742

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.55%chance

10358928

OptionVotes

YES

144964

69643

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Aug 23, 6:50 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.4%chance

367049

OptionVotes

YES

15737

14292

Will the Purdue Men's Basketball team be ranked in the Top 25 of the AP poll at any point during the 2026-2027 season?

Nov 1, 10:10 PMApr 5, 11:59 PM

74.78%chance

31170

OptionVotes

YES

1722

581

Will an LLM find a counterexample to the Erdős conjecture on APs by July 2027?

Jul 20, 1:42 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8%chance

8724

OptionVotes

YES

1025

621

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

YES

10538

9489

Will Aaron Donald be awarded Pro Bowl honors or AP All-Pro honors for the 2026 NFL regular season?

Aug 31, 1:54 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

23.33%chance

8612

OptionVotes

YES

1449

819

Will the AP call the 2026 Mississippi Senate race (Colom vs. Hyde-Smith) by November 20, 2026?

Nov 6, 6:48 AMNov 21, 4:59 AM

87.57%chance

5197

OptionVotes

YES

253

Which AP Subject Test for May 2027 will have the most students get the lowest score on it?

Aug 8, 9:33 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

757

OptionProbability

Other

Computer Science A

Physics 1

US History

Physics 2

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
Latin America
Venezuela
US Foreign Policy
US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift
Authors
44
1 year ago
Aug 12, 2025
Aug 12, 2025
NCAA
Sports
Texas Tops AP Preseason College Football Poll With 25 First-Place Votes; Penn State Second, Ohio State Third
Authors
24
1 year ago

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Prediction markets for AP

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Will the Purdue Men's Basketball team be ranked in the Top 25 of the AP poll at any point during the 2026-2027 season?

Will an LLM find a counterexample to the Erdős conjecture on APs by July 2027?

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Will Aaron Donald be awarded Pro Bowl honors or AP All-Pro honors for the 2026 NFL regular season?

Will the AP call the 2026 Mississippi Senate race (Colom vs. Hyde-Smith) by November 20, 2026?

Which AP Subject Test for May 2027 will have the most students get the lowest score on it?

Latest stories

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