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Prediction markets for AP
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
56.31%chance
440954278
OptionVotes
12844
6434
This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.
Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
74%chance
293621168
OptionVotes
2825
2569
How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?
Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
35121190
OptionProbability
27
21
19
19
18
15
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
56.8%chance
5626924
OptionVotes
114667
87209
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
34.31%chance
5717669
OptionVotes
13461
7504
Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?
Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
13.97%chance
5212270
OptionVotes
19342
7418
FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?
Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.33%chance
44262
OptionVotes
13530
7391
Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?
Feb 14, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 7:59 AM
46.76%chance
202135
OptionVotes
10868
9165
OptionProbability
1
0
0
Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?
Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM
35.35%chance
7876
OptionVotes
10313
9761
Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?
Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
52.62%chance
9702
OptionVotes
10538
9489
Which AP Subject Test for May 2026 will have the most students get the lowest score on it?
Jul 6, 4:28 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM
345
OptionProbability
50
19
16
15
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