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Apple Stores News

    Prediction markets for Apple Stores

    OptionProbability

    Has 10,000+ articles

    Contains egregious, easily verified falsehoods

    Contains AI-generated articles

    Accessible without login

    Standalone website (not just a Twitter/X feature)

    Content is under a free license

    Contains a "Wikipedia" article

    No entry for Mechahitler

    Has an entry for Manifold Markets

    Will actually be called "Grokipedia"

    left-wingers perceive that it is biased against them

    it is cringe

    It's proven (within a week after release) that Musk has personally influenced at least one article (eg. manual correction, edits to the prompt for just that article, “de-biasing”, etc)

    States that the race/ethnicity differences in IQ are mostly or entirely genetic

    Larry Sanger inserts himself into it somehow

    Uses Cloudflare to defend from scrapers

    Released in 2026

    Anyone can edit

    Administered by a partially-human editorial board

    Users will only be able to edit by prompting AI for changes

    Articles written in 10+ languages

    Has a way to see what specifically about an article was changed in a similar way to Wikipedia and other adjacent wikis

    right-wingers perceive that it is biased against them

    Grok will routinely check it when answering questions

    Not released before 2030

    Manifold likes it, according to a poll

    Contains advertisements

    Will be called Encyclopedia Galactica

    has an official app on the Apple App Store

    Uses a preexisting wiki engine or CMS

    States that the death toll of the (Jewish) Holocaust was <3 million

    Released in 2025

    99

    99

    98

    98

    98

    97

    96

    95

    95

    92

    92

    90

    88

    83

    82

    82

    80

    75

    54

    46

    41

    35

    24

    24

    19

    16

    15

    14

    9

    4

    3

    0

    OptionProbability

    Starlink

    Tesla Robotics (embodied ai)

    Microsoft Teams

    AWS

    Google ads

    Reality labs

    Apple App store

    Omniverse

    64

    41

    41

    34

    34

    26

    25

    23

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2075

    489

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1822

    549

    Will the HBO Max app still exist on July 1, 2027?

    Dec 5, 8:37 PMJul 1, 8:35 PM
    80.01%chance
    81707

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2001

    500

    Will the standalone Hulu app still exist on July 1, 2026?

    Aug 9, 5:28 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM
    48.13%chance
    111020

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1047

    972

    OptionProbability

    Apple gets subjected to financial penalties

    Opening Up of NFC and Other Hardware Features - Apple is required to provide third-party developers access to hardware features currently restricted, such as the NFC chip used for tap-to-pay transactions.

    IApple gets mandated to implement interoperability measures for messaging and smartwatch functionalities

    The ruling forces Apple to allow developers to use their payment systems within their apps, bypassing Apple's in-app purchase system and the associated fees.

    The court sets clear deadlines for when Apple must implement these changes, such as within 90 days of the ruling, providing a clear timeline for verification.

    The court orders Apple to revise Apple's App Store guidelines to allow for more competition.

    Establishment of a mechanism for ongoing oversight of Apple's compliance with the lawsuit's rulings.

    Apple is compelled to allow developers more freedom in presentation and monetization of apps, including enabling different app discovery methods (ex : use of icons or tiles for mini programs, categorizing them, or using virtual currencies).

    Mandatory Allowance of Third-Party App Stores and Sideloading

    The court finds Apple guilty of monopolizing or attempting to monopolize the performance smartphone market and/or the broader smartphone market in the United States in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.

    The court defines specific permissible actions for super apps and cloud gaming services on iOS, like not requiring each game or service within a super app to be submitted to the App Store individually.

    If state antitrust laws are violated, Apple could be fined a specific dollar amount per incident of anticompetitive conduct, as defined by state statutes. (Conditional market)

    The court requires Apple to permit cloud gaming services on its devices

    The lawsuit leads to a decision that deems Apple's 30% commission rate as excessive.

    The court may issue injunctions to prohibit Apple from continuing the specific practices that are identified as anticompetitive, such as using control over app distribution and private APIs to undermine competition.

    The court mandates a specific maximum percentage for App Store commissions, such as reducing the current 30% fee to a lower figure, like 15% or 10%.

    The court orders Apple to apply its rules and guidelines fairly across all apps and not enforce them selectively to benefit its services or harm competitors.

    Apple gets ordered to give restitution to developers or consumers who have been adversely affected by its policies.

    The court could require a measurable increase in the number of apps or services in previously restricted categories, such as digital wallets or cloud gaming, available on iOS within a certain period post-ruling.

    Compulsory API Access: Apple gets ordered to provide third-party developers with access to the same APIs and functionalities that its own apps use, which could be tracked by a compliance monitor appointed by the court.

    80

    66

    66

    66

    65

    62

    55

    55

    55

    52

    48

    48

    47

    47

    43

    40

    36

    36

    33

    32

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1103

    943

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    360

    260

    OptionProbability

    Alex Roman

    Tim Cook

    Luca Maestri

    45

    24

    21

    Addison Rae releases new album in 2026?

    Nov 21, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    30.7%chance
    360

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    150

    67

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    103

    77

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