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Prediction markets for ARC
[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
Jan 6, 10:21 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM
2723510
OptionProbability
89
10
1
0
0
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
56.61%chance
7818030
OptionVotes
1941
31
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028
Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.39%chance
6012486
OptionVotes
1590
670
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
62.56%chance
5010324
OptionVotes
1297
776
OptionVotes
1646
86
OptionVotes
1171
854
OptionVotes
1288
776
OptionVotes
1291
915
Will the Elbaf arc have a higher peak worldwide Google Trends search interest than any previous One Piece arc?
Nov 1, 5:49 PMJan 1, 1:00 PM
60%chance
91119
OptionVotes
1225
816
Will Hajrudin awaken Conqueror’s Haki during the Elbaph Arc?
Jan 19, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
51%chance
6366
OptionVotes
1020
980
Will "ARC progress update: Competing with sampling" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 19, 4:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.14%chance
2270
OptionVotes
1252
964
Will "Obstacles in ARC's agenda: Finding explanations" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 18, 6:40 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000