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Top stories

Nvidia and Google Lead $863 Million Funding for Commonwealth Fusion’s SPARC Reactor

Nvidia and Google Lead $863 Million Funding for Commonwealth Fusion’s SPARC Reactor

Authors

15

7 months ago

Prediction markets for ARC

[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:21 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

2723510

OptionProbability

90 - 100%

80 - 89%

70 - 79%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

89

10

1

0

0

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.61%chance

7818030

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1941

31

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.39%chance

6012486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1590

670

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.56%chance

5010324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1297

776

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1646

86

Will ARC AGI 3 be easy for humans and hard for AI?

Dec 12, 4:51 AMJan 1, 4:45 AM

57.82%chance

135016

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1171

854

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Jun 11, 7:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.61%chance

314360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

776

SBF Redemption Arc

Nov 11, 11:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.94%chance

241663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

915

Will the Elbaf arc have a higher peak worldwide Google Trends search interest than any previous One Piece arc?

Nov 1, 5:49 PMJan 1, 1:00 PM

60%chance

91119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will Hajrudin awaken Conqueror’s Haki during the Elbaph Arc?

Jan 19, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51%chance

6366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Will "ARC progress update: Competing with sampling" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 19, 4:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.14%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

964

Will "Obstacles in ARC's agenda: Finding explanations" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 6:40 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
VC
Physics
Energy
Nvidia and Google Lead $863 Million Funding for Commonwealth Fusion’s SPARC Reactor
Authors
15
7 months ago

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