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Top stories

Nvidia and Google Lead $863 Million Funding for Commonwealth Fusion’s SPARC Reactor

Nvidia and Google Lead $863 Million Funding for Commonwealth Fusion’s SPARC Reactor

Authors

15

11 months ago

Prediction markets for ARC

[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:21 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

3033179

OptionProbability

90 - 100%

80 - 89%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

70 - 79%

98

2

0

0

0

Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?

Mar 25, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.28%chance

9313004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

788

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.39%chance

6012486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1590

670

Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 5:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

3412236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.76%chance

5310874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

885

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1646

86

Best ARC-AGI-3 score in 2026?

Apr 14, 7:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

379531

OptionProbability

50 - 60%

40 - 50%

60 - 70%

70 - 80%

>90%

80 - 90%

30 - 40%

10 - 20%

20 - 30%

0 - 10%

31

20

18

10

10

6

3

1

1

0

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Jun 11, 7:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.61%chance

314360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

776

SBF Redemption Arc

Nov 11, 11:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.94%chance

241663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

915

Will Hajrudin awaken Conqueror’s Haki during the Elbaph Arc?

Jan 19, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.05%chance

6536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

869

Will "Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 1:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.82%chance

113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

998

Will "Obstacles in ARC's agenda: Finding explanations" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 6:40 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
VC
Physics
Energy
Nvidia and Google Lead $863 Million Funding for Commonwealth Fusion’s SPARC Reactor
Authors
15
11 months ago

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