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Prediction markets for Ars Technica
Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?
Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3382149
OptionProbability
100
26
20
2
0
0
0
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.54%chance
17534125
OptionVotes
14201
7469
Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?
Oct 21, 2:40 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM
2.47%chance
125424
OptionVotes
6286
159
Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
9.89%chance
184256
OptionVotes
3019
331
Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
36.12%chance
11684
OptionVotes
1330
752
Will a full ship-to-ship cryogenic propellant transfer in orbit be achieved by end of 2026?
Sep 14, 3:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.68%chance
2371
OptionVotes
324
31
Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps
May 14, 2:12 PMDec 31, 5:00 PM
88.08%chance
15351
OptionVotes
272
37
Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
56.57%chance
4317
OptionVotes
1141
876
Will Sesame Smart Glasses have a wave guide visual display?
Oct 28, 3:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
45.83%chance
6134
OptionVotes
1087
920
Will I consider either of these Duncan Farrah et al Black Hole papers to be significant before 2033?
Feb 17, 3:37 AMDec 13, 7:59 AM
23.84%chance
577
OptionVotes
126
69
How many SpaceX Starship launches will be used to refuel the first Starship to land on the moon?
Oct 23, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
275
OptionProbability
83
80
66
50
50
50
34
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.76%chance
173
OptionVotes
119
91