Assured News

BlackRock, Nuveen, Taconic Join 90% PREPA Bondholders Abandoning Debt Deal as Luma Energy Sues Amid Oversight Board Shakeup

7 months ago

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

28.34%chance

21644594642

OptionVotes

YES

18431

4802

Mutually Assured Destruction of the Elon Musk & Trump by 2030

Mar 11, 3:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.96%chance

177006

OptionVotes

YES

2206

453

Was Covid-19 an intentional bioweapon release?

Jan 30, 7:24 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.27%chance

302301

OptionVotes

YES

1347

954

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.07%chance

161264

OptionVotes

YES

1257

604

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

1368

731

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

1217

848

Will America be a failed state by 2050?

Jan 23, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.54%chance

13547

OptionVotes

YES

109

Will Maduro escape prosecution through a deal with the US government?

Jan 3, 7:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.4%chance

15465

OptionVotes

YES

148

In how many days will Mojtaba Khamenei die?

Mar 11, 10:28 AMJan 1, 9:16 AM

12411

OptionProbability

After March 31 2026.

Before 01/01 2027

During April 2026.

Within 10 days.

If Tetraspace makes an assurance contract website in 2024, how many users will it have at the end of 2024?

Dec 24, 5:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5230

OptionProbability

6 to 10

11 to 20

21 to 50

201 to 500

501 to 1000

3 to 5

51 to 100

101 to 200

1001 to 2000

Other

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.65%chance

7135

OptionVotes

YES

159

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22%chance

OptionVotes

YES

108

Latest stories

Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
US Gov Appointments
Law
Politics
BlackRock, Nuveen, Taconic Join 90% PREPA Bondholders Abandoning Debt Deal as Luma Energy Sues Amid Oversight Board Shakeup
Authors
3
7 months ago

Join our channels

Get the latest stories live on any device.

WhatsApp
Top Stories
Join
Telegram
Top Stories
Join

Assured News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Assured

Prediction markets for Assured

Prediction markets for Assured

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Mutually Assured Destruction of the Elon Musk & Trump by 2030

Was Covid-19 an intentional bioweapon release?

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

Will America be a failed state by 2050?

Will Maduro escape prosecution through a deal with the US government?

In how many days will Mojtaba Khamenei die?

If Tetraspace makes an assurance contract website in 2024, how many users will it have at the end of 2024?

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram